The Probability Desk
57,000 Jobs, 4.2% Inflation: The Fed's Two-Sided Bind
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
Topic
Long-Horizon Capital
The governance and behaviour required to actually invest for decades.
Latest in Long-Horizon Capital
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-07-01
Who Gets Crowded Out When Big Tech Borrows a Trillion The Probability Desk — Wednesday, July 1, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — Japan's 30-year anchor: how high, how fast?
Our 50,000-path scenario model assigns a 55% probability the 30-year JGB averages >=4.00% over 12 months — judgment-weighted, not market-implied.
The Probability Desk
Japan's New 3.8% Anchor: What Happens When the World's Suppressed Long Bond Reprices
The Probability Desk — Published Monday, June 22, 2026 · Updated through Tuesday, June 24, 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO
Daily Brief
The discount rate stopped falling · the dollar's best day in a year · Warsh opens the hood
The Fed moved its own 2026 median dot above today's policy rate and put nine officials on record for a hike. For owners of long-duration everything, that is the week. One chart.
Daily Brief
The Strait reopened on paper · the Gulf's $80 problem · the owners keep buying
Brent steadied near $80 while Hormuz transits sit at a tenth of normal. The gap between the priced reopening and the physical one is this week's signal. One chart.
The Probability Desk
Lebanon Breaks the Nuclear Calendar — Does It Open the Warsh Hike Window?
The Probability Desk | Friday, June 19, 2026 Executive Summary On June 19, 2026, the opening round of US-Iran nuclear talks in
UAO Daily Brief — Friday, 19 June 2026
$700B in AI capex. 49 GW of missing power. Listed infrastructure at 2009 prices.
Daily Brief
Warsh drops the playbook · nine dots for a hike · Norway: $68bn saved from Q1
The Warsh Fed held rates, erased the last cut, and nine members now dot a hike this year. The world's largest fund just recovered $68bn from its Q1 rout. One chart.
Daily Brief
Warsh's first test: the dots the market doesn't believe
Warsh's first Fed decision lands tomorrow and the bond market is already fading the dots. Oil is back to $80, sovereign money now sets the price, plus today's chart and scenario.
Daily Brief
Warsh inherits 4.2% inflation — and collapsing oil
Warsh's first Fed meeting, oil's round trip, and CalPERS rewrites the rules — plus today's scenario and chart.
Daily Brief
AI's real bottleneck is power | Jun 14
Data-centre demand doubles to ~945 TWh by 2030. The universal owner sits on every side of it.
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