The Probability Desk
The Hormuz corridor rally is pricing ships that have not sailed
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, 26 August 2026 Oil gave back most of a week's war premium in three sessions because
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The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-08-22: Does Brent print $100 by 30 September?
Hormuz is shut and the 60-day US-Iran memorandum expired on 17 August with no successor. From spot $93.26, the Desk puts 58% on a $100 Brent print within 30 trading days - below its own 50,000-path model.
The Probability Desk
A signed deal reopened Hormuz to 27 ships a day
Subject line: A signed deal reopened Hormuz to 27 ships a day The Islamabad Memorandum expired on Monday without a successor. It
The Probability Desk
Nineteen basis points from the number that reprices every liability
Subject line: Nineteen basis points from the number that reprices every liability The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-08-17
Texas Just Discovered It Has a Veto Over the AI Build The Probability Desk — Monday, 17 August 2026 The most permissive large-
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-07-18: The 79-Basis-Point Question
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-07-16: The Two-Sided Bind, Priced
Soft June inflation and a cooling job market argue for cuts — but the broken Iran ceasefire has oil back above $85, threatening to reverse the disinflation the Fed just banked. Where year-end rates land.
Japan Bets on Itself. Temasek Goes Maximum AI.
The $1.8 trillion pension signal that moved markets—and the sovereign investor targeting a 15% AI allocation.
daily-brief
Hormuz is back in your portfolio
A single strait moves oil, LNG, inflation, rates, shipping and defense at once — and it's back. Plus private credit meets its stress test as it's sold into the 401(k), and Temasek maps the AI-and-income barbell.
UAO Daily Brief — The Sovereign Paradox: Less Oil Margin, More AI Ambition
Saudi Arabia cut its flagship oil price the most in 20+ years even as Gulf sovereign capital closed a $49bn AI fund — the twin-track paradox, plus India's savings rails and why the investment committee is now a risk factor.
OpenAI Wants Washington on the Cap Table
A 5% 'donation' to a new U.S. sovereign fund would put the state on the register of your largest holdings. Plus: AMP quits government bonds - and GPIF's Y41.4tn year shows why.
The Signal Just Got Noisier
June payrolls came in at +57k — but the story is the 74k in downward revisions, a $29tn sovereign rotation, a new grid ownership model, and private credit gating again.
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