The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-09-18
The Bank of Japan hiked. The yen fell. Watch the thirty-year. The Probability Desk · Friday 18 September 2026 A probability-weighted
Topic
Long-Horizon Capital
The governance and behaviour required to actually invest for decades.
Latest in Long-Horizon Capital
The Probability Desk
The market has decided December. The Desk gives it a coin flip.
Two weeks after our 31 August forecast, futures price 54 basis points of tightening by Christmas — about 2.1 hikes. The Desk re-forecasts the 9 December target range: one hike is now the base, a second is a coin flip, and the market's tail is too fat.
The Universal Owner
Ottawa's C$1tn rests on C$280bn. Enable isn't close.
Norway's benchmark moves twenty points, not half. And the last time a Saudi bypass went down, it came back in two weeks.
The Universal Owner
Higher rates put funding and liquidity on the agenda
The ECB's September 10 decision puts funding and cash on the same agenda. Nike's filed votes, Detailhandel's conversion hedge, and verified capital closes complete Friday's brief.
The Universal Owner
Funded at 143.7%, and it still bought the put.
A scheme funded at 143.7 per cent bought insurance seven weeks before the date that sets its members' pension increase. A fund with a bill running into the next century bought the opposite instrument.
The Probability Desk
Five forecasts $22 apart — and a 30% chance of the toll regime
The Probability Desk · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · Universal Asset Owners Brent crossed $100 this morning for the first time since July. Five
Daily Brief
The safe asset stopped behaving like one, and a Fed governor said so out loud
A Fed governor says the Treasury safety premium is gone, Kuwait writes a legal route to borrow from its own sovereign fund, and Lloyd's reports £1.4bn of Gulf war losses — an early, IBNR-heavy estimate.
The Probability Desk
Three percent real, for thirty years — and a 55% chance it holds
The Probability Desk · Thursday, 3 September 2026 · Universal Asset Owners The 30-year US real yield has spent sixteen years below 3%
Daily Brief
The BoE’s £17.8bn collateral signal
QT is changing what banks pledge for cash. The amount doubled; the share held. A central bank’s eligibility list is a price.
The Probability Desk
Japan's 10-year hits 3%. The Desk's base case is that it stays there.
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, 1 September 2026 Desk view, in one paragraph Tokyo printed the number its own budget was built on.
The Probability Desk
The Fed's December call moved 25 points in three sessions. Ours moved with it.
The Probability Desk · Monday 31 August 2026 · Universal Asset Owners Desk view in one paragraph Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson
The Probability Desk
The Hormuz corridor rally is pricing ships that have not sailed
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, 26 August 2026 Oil gave back most of a week's war premium in three sessions because
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