Japan Bets on Itself. Temasek Goes Maximum AI.
The $1.8 trillion pension signal that moved markets—and the sovereign investor targeting a 15% AI allocation.
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Long-Horizon Capital
The governance and behaviour required to actually invest for decades.
Latest in Long-Horizon Capital
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Hormuz is back in your portfolio
A single strait moves oil, LNG, inflation, rates, shipping and defense at once — and it's back. Plus private credit meets its stress test as it's sold into the 401(k), and Temasek maps the AI-and-income barbell.
UAO Daily Brief — The Sovereign Paradox: Less Oil Margin, More AI Ambition
Saudi Arabia cut its flagship oil price the most in 20+ years even as Gulf sovereign capital closed a $49bn AI fund — the twin-track paradox, plus India's savings rails and why the investment committee is now a risk factor.
OpenAI Wants Washington on the Cap Table
A 5% 'donation' to a new U.S. sovereign fund would put the state on the register of your largest holdings. Plus: AMP quits government bonds - and GPIF's Y41.4tn year shows why.
The Signal Just Got Noisier
June payrolls came in at +57k — but the story is the 74k in downward revisions, a $29tn sovereign rotation, a new grid ownership model, and private credit gating again.
The Probability Desk
57,000 Jobs, 4.2% Inflation: The Fed's Two-Sided Bind
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-07-01
Who Gets Crowded Out When Big Tech Borrows a Trillion The Probability Desk — Wednesday, July 1, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — Japan's 30-year anchor: how high, how fast?
Our 50,000-path scenario model assigns a 55% probability the 30-year JGB averages >=4.00% over 12 months — judgment-weighted, not market-implied.
The Probability Desk
Japan's New 3.8% Anchor: What Happens When the World's Suppressed Long Bond Reprices
The Probability Desk — Published Monday, June 22, 2026 · Updated through Tuesday, June 24, 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO
Daily Brief
The discount rate stopped falling · the dollar's best day in a year · Warsh opens the hood
The Fed moved its own 2026 median dot above today's policy rate and put nine officials on record for a hike. For owners of long-duration everything, that is the week. One chart.
Daily Brief
The Strait reopened on paper · the Gulf's $80 problem · the owners keep buying
Brent steadied near $80 while Hormuz transits sit at a tenth of normal. The gap between the priced reopening and the physical one is this week's signal. One chart.
The Probability Desk
Lebanon Breaks the Nuclear Calendar — Does It Open the Warsh Hike Window?
The Probability Desk | Friday, June 19, 2026 Executive Summary On June 19, 2026, the opening round of US-Iran nuclear talks in
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