We model the paths the market is not pricing, show the weak signals already visible, and tell you exactly what would make a 0.7% risk a 15% one — with the source trail and the model behind every number.
A weak-signal and scenario-intelligence system for sovereign wealth funds, public pensions, endowments, insurers, and family offices. The market prices what is obvious. The Probability Desk exists to help serious allocators see what is not obvious yet.
Every probability decomposes into its inputs — base rate, expert prior, market signal, simulation, judgment — each with confidence and a timestamp. When a CIO asks “where did that number come from?”, the answer is on the page.
Every forecast is a resolvable question, logged with its prior, and Brier-scored as it resolves. We publish our calibration record. Almost no one else in this category does.
We state, explicitly, where our view differs from what the market appears to be pricing — and what evidence would close the gap. The gap is the product.
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
Every call runs through an ensemble — base rate, expert prior, market signal, and (where available) simulation — weighted by a written rule into a base case, an upside and a tail that sum to 100%. We publish a calibration log and keep score.
Soft June inflation and a cooling job market argue for cuts — but the broken Iran ceasefire has oil back above $85, threatening to reverse the disinflation the Fed just banked. Where year-end rates land.
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
Who Gets Crowded Out When Big Tech Borrows a Trillion The Probability Desk — Wednesday, July 1, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph.
Our 50,000-path scenario model assigns a 55% probability the 30-year JGB averages >=4.00% over 12 months — judgment-weighted, not market-implied.
The Probability Desk — Published Monday, June 22, 2026 · Updated through Tuesday, June 24, 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO
The Probability Desk | Friday, June 19, 2026 Executive Summary On June 19, 2026, the opening round of US-Iran nuclear talks in
Every scenario also runs as a short video and an audio briefing.
A flagship Probability Desk report is instrumented, not narrated. Each one carries, on the page:
Every scenario briefing follows the same structure — from the trigger to the reprice.
The structural event that started the clock.
The small, early, often local indicators visible before the story is mainstream.
The most-likely path, with its weight and the items to watch.
The low-probability, high-severity scenario and what triggers it.
Where our view differs from what the market appears to price — and what closes it.
How a local trigger becomes a portfolio exposure for a whole-market book.
The daily scenario, video and podcast are free. The decision-grade research — source ledger, accountability ledger, data exports, watchlists, and bespoke monitoring — is for institutional members.
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Research, charts, video and podcast analysis for the institutions investing at the scale of the world.
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