The Probability Desk
The Copper Reckoning — Cinematic
The weekend cinematic from The Probability Desk: can the world wire the future it has promised? Watch the five-minute film, then read the full scenario report.
Today’s lead story
From The Universal Owner
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Thirty billion for five gigawatts of AI compute | Jun 6
A Blackstone- and CPP-backed operator pledges $30bn for India data centres, Gulf funds keep spending — and the real ceiling is power, not money. Plus one chart.
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The watchdog's new worry: several shocks at once | Jun 5
The FSB names two fresh dangers, private-credit defaults hit a record, and the world's largest fund's ethics machine is paused — plus one chart.
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The Gulf kept buying through the war | Jun 4
Sovereign capital flowed to developed markets even as reserve managers trimmed the dollar — and one chart.
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Pensions split on private markets at July 1 | Jun 3
Alaska trims, Washington builds, the FSB warns — and one chart.
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Gulf funds spent $26bn through the war | Jun 2
A faster pace than the prior five years, the Strait shut — and one chart.
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China's factory data splits in two as Wall Street prints records | Jun 1
Official PMI stalls at 50.0, the private survey jumps to 51.8 — and one chart.
From The Probability Desk
All scenarios →
The Probability Desk
The Copper Reckoning — Cinematic
The weekend cinematic from The Probability Desk: can the world wire the future it has promised? Watch the five-minute film, then read the full scenario report.
The Probability Desk
The Copper Reckoning
Can the world dig, refine, and recycle enough copper to wire the AI build-out and the energy transition — or does the red metal become the binding constraint of the next twenty-five years? A weekend cinematic flagship: full scenario report plus a five-minute film.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 5, 2026: The Hot-Jobs Trap
Video pending upload — the transcript is below; the player appears once the video is hosted. Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-06-05
The Hot-Jobs Trap: Will Warsh's Fed Cut at All in 2026? The Probability Desk · Friday, June 5, 2026 · Universal Asset
Chart of the Day
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Chart of the Day
Chart of the day — 2026-06-06
A Blackstone- and CPP-backed operator pledges $30bn for India data centres, Gulf funds keep spending — and the real ceiling is power, not money. Plus one chart.
Chart of the Day
Chart of the day — 2026-06-05
The FSB names two fresh dangers, private-credit defaults hit a record, and the world's largest fund's ethics machine is paused — plus one chart.
Chart of the Day
Chart of the day — 2026-06-04
Sovereign capital flowed to developed markets even as reserve managers trimmed the dollar — and one chart.
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