Correction: the earlier four-fund Canada comparison mixed six-month and one-quarter returns. Almaraz operating licences run to 8 June 2030; physical-protection dates do not. RBI closed new FCNR(B) deposits after $52.300bn. CPP Investments printed a 7.5% quarter.
Correction: the earlier four-fund Canada comparison mixed six-month and one-quarter returns. Almaraz operating licences run to 8 June 2030; physical-protection dates do not. RBI closed new FCNR(B) deposits after $52.300bn. CPP Investments printed a 7.5% quarter.
NBIM votes 0.01% of SpaceX. GIC backs Anthropic's landlord. Six giants chase $500bn of compute credit. Canada's pensions split 9.5 / 5.1 / 4.8.
NBIM votes 0.01% of SpaceX. GIC backs Anthropic's landlord. Six giants chase $500bn of compute credit. Canada's pensions split 9.5 / 5.1 / 4.8.
BofA, NVIDIA, Goldman, GIC — six announcements this week, two of them transactions.
Two numbers from one bank on one day. Only one is a signed commitment of the bank's own capital — and even that has not closed.
The world's largest fund just posted a record half-year. Its allocation decisions subtracted from it.
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
Soft June inflation and a cooling job market argue for cuts — but the broken Iran ceasefire has oil back above $85, threatening to reverse the disinflation the Fed just banked. Where year-end rates land.
Transcript This is The Probability Desk from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
Norges Bank Investment Management published holdings, as at 30 June 2026. Three inspected holdings shown; percentages are of each company, not of the fund.
Six announcements across the stage ledger. Stages assigned by UAO from the primary announcement documents — Bank of America, NVIDIA, Goldman Sachs, Cleanaway (via ASX) and the Presidency of Colombia, 10–13 August 2026. Marker area is proportional to the headline figure; solid markers are b
Source: Norges Bank Investment Management half-year report 2026, published 12 August 2026. Returns are for the six months to 30 June 2026; asset-class returns are measured in the fund’s currency basket, and the relative-return contributions are the fund’s own attribution. These are the fun
US Treasury 10-year and 2-year constant-maturity yields and the 10y-2y spread, 2026 year to date, with the 28 February Hormuz closure marked. Series DGS10/DGS2 via FRED, daily closes through 7 August 2026; single vintage; Fed-produced series only.
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