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From The Universal Owner All briefs →
The Universal Owner

Higher rates put funding and liquidity on the agenda

The ECB's September 10 decision puts funding and cash on the same agenda. Nike's filed votes, Detailhandel's conversion hedge, and verified capital closes complete Friday's brief.

· Sep 11, 2026
Funded at 143.7%, and it still bought the put.
The Universal Owner

Funded at 143.7%, and it still bought the put.

A scheme funded at 143.7 per cent bought insurance seven weeks before the date that sets its members' pension increase. A fund with a bill running into the next century bought the opposite instrument.

· Sep 10, 2026
From The Probability Desk All scenarios →
Probability of the fed funds target range after the 8-9 December 2026 FOMC
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-14

The strip needs December at 99.9%. The Desk gives it 58%. Futures, the June dot plot and this Desk disagree about the same December meeting — and the gap is no longer about September.

· Sep 14, 2026
Probability of the fed funds target range after the 8-9 December 2026 FOMC: the Desk versus fed funds futures and the June dot plot
The Probability Desk

The market has decided December. The Desk gives it a coin flip.

Two weeks after our 31 August forecast, futures price 54 basis points of tightening by Christmas — about 2.1 hikes. The Desk re-forecasts the 9 December target range: one hike is now the base, a second is a coin flip, and the market's tail is too fat.

· Sep 14, 2026
The official oil forecast is a line. The question is a distribution.
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-09

The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its Short-Term Energy Outlook this morning and put Brent at $83 a barrel in March 2027. The full path it published — $93 in September, then $92, $91, $89, $87, $85, $83, and on down to $62 by December 2027 — is fifteen consecutive monthly declines

· Sep 9, 2026
Chart of the Day — Sixteen years below three percent, seven days at it
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-03

The 30-year US Treasury inflation-protected real yield closed at 2.98% on 1 September 2026. In the 4,136 trading days since that series began in February 2010, it has closed at or above 3.00% on exactly seven — and all seven fell between 31 July and 21 August this year. The gold dots on the left pan

· Sep 3, 2026
Chart of the Day All charts →
Probability of the fed funds target range after the 8-9 December 2026 FOMC
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-14

The strip needs December at 99.9%. The Desk gives it 58%. Futures, the June dot plot and this Desk disagree about the same December meeting — and the gap is no longer about September.

· Sep 14, 2026
The official oil forecast is a line. The question is a distribution.
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-09

The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its Short-Term Energy Outlook this morning and put Brent at $83 a barrel in March 2027. The full path it published — $93 in September, then $92, $91, $89, $87, $85, $83, and on down to $62 by December 2027 — is fifteen consecutive monthly declines

· Sep 9, 2026
Canada–US goods trade before the counter-tariffs
Chart of the Day

Canada–US goods trade before the counter-tariffs

On 4 September 2026 the Securities and Exchange Commission filed, in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, an application for an order to show cause and an order compelling Institutional Shareholder Services, Inc. to comply with an administrative subpoena. The docket is 2:26-mc-00078 ; the

· Sep 8, 2026
The Daily Brief

The morning briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital.

Research, charts, video and podcast analysis for the institutions investing at the scale of the world.