Thursday 5 November 2026 The pension pool is bigger. The promise is not safer. OECD pension assets reach US$78 trillion while contribution gaps persist. Plus private credit, trustee governance, wage risk and institutional careers. Good morning. Today’s edition separates the size of the asset pool from
Thursday 5 November 2026 The pension pool is bigger. The promise is not safer. OECD pension assets reach US$78 trillion while
Wednesday 4 November 2026 Reported US congressional results put policy bargaining in focus. Plus institutional capital, regional policy, stewardship, senior appointments and
The grid-cost debate meets the Bank of Japan’s fresh demand-risk report. Plus today’s podcast, Ryan’s UAO LIVE, institutional capital and careers.
China's factory pulse slips below 50 as COP17, power consolidation and the EU–Canada alliance move from strategy toward delivery.
TPG’s US$10.4bn climate close, Intel’s financing and Friday selloff, and the balance sheets behind market resilience.
Amazon’s cash-flow deficit, the Bank of Japan’s policy decision and the physical cost of growth across institutional portfolios.
Japan's 30-year bond closed at 4.047% on 17 September. In the tenor's entire 6,626-day history it has closed at or above 4% on 25 days — all of them since 18 May 2026.
The Bank of Japan hiked. The yen fell. Watch the thirty-year. The Probability Desk · Friday 18 September 2026 A probability-weighted
The strip needs December at 99.9%. The Desk gives it 58%. Futures, the June dot plot and this Desk disagree about the same December meeting — and the gap is no longer about September.
Two weeks after our 31 August forecast, futures price 54 basis points of tightening by Christmas — about 2.1 hikes. The Desk re-forecasts the 9 December target range: one hike is now the base, a second is a coin flip, and the market's tail is too fat.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its Short-Term Energy Outlook this morning and put Brent at $83 a barrel in March 2027. The full path it published — $93 in September, then $92, $91, $89, $87, $85, $83, and on down to $62 by December 2027 — is fifteen consecutive monthly declines
The Probability Desk · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · Universal Asset Owners Brent crossed $100 this morning for the first time since July. Five
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis series DGS10, DGS30 and DFEDTARU. Treasury series end 17 September 2026; DFEDTARU is a seven-day series sourced to FOMC releases and runs to 20 September 2026. Only dated observations are plotted; neither Treasury series is a liability-discount curve. Retr
Japan's 30-year bond closed at 4.047% on 17 September. In the tenor's entire 6,626-day history it has closed at or above 4% on 25 days — all of them since 18 May 2026.
The Bank of England's £488.2bn gilt stock, split three ways.
Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026. Participant counts read from Figure 2.
Research, charts, video and podcast analysis for the institutions investing at the scale of the world.
Five minutes, five days a week. Complimentary — subscriptions are reviewed by our editorial desk, and you'll receive a notice once approved.
You’re on the list. Tomorrow’s brief will arrive in your inbox.
Please enter a valid email.