Watch · Today's briefingChart of the day: Brent, the VIX and US high-yield spreads since the war began on 28 February. Historical series: FRED (spot Brent; VIX and HY OAS through 17 Jul). The 20 Jul marker is the ICE Brent front-month futures print, labelled
Watch · Today's briefingChart of the day: Brent, the VIX and US high-yield spreads since the war began on 28
Hormuz transits fall to four a day and Brent tops $90; China turns on a ¥60bn policy put; TSMC lifts Arizona to $265bn; and the sovereign climate trade meets its chokepoint.
Oil re-priced the Gulf on Friday while equities sold the AI trade — and why the semiconductor rout is really a terminal-value question for universal owners.
Six nights of US–Iran strikes, VIX 15.67, cash below the sell signal — where the war-risk premium went.
Six consecutive nights of U.S. strikes on Iran, retaliation on Gulf bases, Hormuz traffic dwindling — and Brent closed lower, the VIX at 15.67, fund cash at 3.6%. Where did the war-risk premium go? UAO Daily Brief, Vol 1, Issue 63.
War-risk premiums, credit spreads, volatility and cash buffers have all compressed while a shooting war runs at the world's most important chokepoint. Where the premium went — and what an owner pays for insurance when the market stops selling it honestly.
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
Soft June inflation and a cooling job market argue for cuts — but the broken Iran ceasefire has oil back above $85, threatening to reverse the disinflation the Fed just banked. Where year-end rates land.
Transcript This is The Probability Desk from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
Brent, the VIX and US high-yield spreads since the war began on 28 February. The repricing arrives one asset class at a time: crude and hull cover first, volatility second, credit not yet — HY OAS 2.73% while Hormuz sailings run at 2/day.
Brent crosses $90 as Hormuz transits thin out.
Source: FRED; Friday settle/close market data.
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