A real-time, source-traceable map of the structural risks moving against permanent capital — weak signals, scenario probabilities and capital-consequence chains, before consensus catches up.
Executive operating picture
What matters for permanent capital today — a ten-second read. Every figure is source-badged; hover any badge for provenance.
The Blind Spot Engine
Structural risks plotted by consensus attention (x) against capital consequence (y). Bubble size = probability velocity; colour = domain; opacity = source quality. The shaded zone is where permanent capital is most exposed and least covered.
Where structural risk is concentrated right now. Each pulse marks a trouble region tied to a tracked scenario; colour = the desk's modeled risk state, faster pulse = rising. Click a node to open its consequence chain and source ledger. Node positions are geographic; alert states are modeled, not a live geolocated feed.
risingelevatedwatchde-escalating
Scenario probability console
The standing register, probability-weighted and ranked by tail-priority. Click any scenario for its consequence chain, signal decomposition, source ledger and the questions it raises.
Scenario · thesis
Prob.
Shift vs prior
Tail-priority
Conf.
Source
Simulation desk
An agent-based simulation continuously probes the standing register for second-order chains and under-watched risks. It informs what to investigate — held at 0pp of the published probability until it earns skill against outcomes, then capped at 5%.
The simulation runs the register as an interacting system rather than a list: it stress-tests how a move in one scenario propagates into others and flags high-consequence risks that consensus is under-watching for human review. Nothing it produces moves a published number today — every probe is a prompt for the desk, not a forecast.
Live0pp contributioncapped at 5% once calibratedcalibration pending
Currently probing
The register's most under-attended, high-consequence scenarios — what the simulation is stress-testing now. Click to open the dossier.
Accountability layer
Why these probabilities are defensible: a sourced outside view, a forecast it can be held to, and a simulation leg that must earn its weight.
Sourced base ratesOutside view
Every scenario is anchored to a documented reference class with a real citation before any live signal moves it — chokepoint-disruption frequency, the historical share of positive stock-bond regimes, IEA critical-mineral balances, Reinhart-Rogoff sovereign-default cycles, FAO food-price spikes, IMF reserve-composition data. 10 of 10 risks anchored. The prior is the cited reference class; live signals move the posterior.
CalibrationPending
Every probability is recorded on an append-only path the day it is published. As scenarios resolve, the desk is scored against reality — Brier score, log-loss, and skill versus the base-rate climatology. The track record is accruing; scores activate as forecasts resolve. Nothing is overwritten.
Simulation leg — gated0pp · pending
The agent-based graph simulation is live and surfacing blind spots, but its contribution to the published probability is held at 0pp until it has earned skill against realised outcomes — then it is capped at 5%. It may suggest what to investigate; it does not determine what is true.
How to reach the desk
For institutional access, briefings, or to discuss the methodology with our team.
Request institutional access
Full source ledgers, scenario dossiers, watchlists and board-ready exports for sovereign funds, pensions, insurers, endowments and family offices.