The Probability Desk
Lebanon Breaks the Nuclear Calendar — Does It Open the Warsh Hike Window?
The Probability Desk | Friday, June 19, 2026 Executive Summary On June 19, 2026, the opening round of US-Iran nuclear talks in
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The Probability Desk | The Vanishing Cut — and the Hike Nobody's Ready For
The tail has flipped. For the first time this cycle, the market is pricing a hike. The Desk weighs three scenarios: 55% hold, 30% hike, 15% cut.
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Watch: The Power Wall
The Power Wall — the Probability Desk weekend cinematic. Watch, then read the full scenario report.
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The Probability Desk — 2026-06-13: The Concentration Trap
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: what happens when the index you own is, increasingly, just ten
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The Concentration Trap: How Does the Most Top-Heavy US Market in 50 Years Resolve?
The Probability Desk · June 13, 2026 Executive Summary — Desk View in One Paragraph The S&P 500 closed Friday, June 12
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The Hormuz Transit-Fee Gambit: Does a Partial Deal Reopen the World's Most Contested Chokepoint?
The Probability Desk · June 11, 2026 Executive Summary — Desk View in One Paragraph Iran's June 8 announcement that the Strait
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The Probability Desk — June 11, 2026: The Hormuz Transit-Fee Gambit
Iran and Oman announce Hormuz transit fees — the first-ever — while US forces strike Iranian radar sites. The Desk assigns 45% to contested partial restoration, 25% to rapid normalization, and 30% to re-escalation. The distribution is bimodal: the median is the wrong number to position for.
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The Probability Desk — PM settle update — 2026-06-09
The 30Y closed fractionally below 5.00% for the first time in three weeks, but on a single-session Iran-headline duration bid — not a thesis break. Headline P(30Y avg >5.00%) holds at 55%. Thursday's 30Y auction is the decisive test.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 9, 2026: The 5% Anchor
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: whether the risk-free rate — the number underneath nearly every long-
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