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Hormuz is shut and the 60-day US-Iran memorandum expired on 17 August with no successor. From spot $93.26, the Desk puts 58% on a $100 Brent print within 30 trading days - below its own 50,000-path model.
For four weeks in June and July a signed US–Iran memorandum reopened the Strait of Hormuz to toll-free transit. The seven-day moving average of daily transit calls peaked at 26.71. The 2025 average was 75.16; the threshold prediction markets use for "normal traffic" is 60. The memorandum expired on
Subject line: A signed deal reopened Hormuz to 27 ships a day The Islamabad Memorandum expired on Monday without a successor. It
The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning — a 19-year high — leaving the official H.15 series nineteen basis points from 5.50%. Four quantitative estimates of the same barrier question span twenty-five percentage points: a 50,000-path Monte Carlo at 53%, the full-sample base rate at 60%,
Subject line: Nineteen basis points from the number that reprices every liability The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning
On 3 August the Governor of Texas directed ERCOT to audit every data centre in its interconnection queue before any further project advances, and ERCOT suspended a classification step due four days later. On 11 August the EIA cut its Texas 2027 load-growth forecast from 14% to 6% and named the pause
Texas Just Discovered It Has a Veto Over the AI Build The Probability Desk — Monday, 17 August 2026 The most permissive large-
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
Soft June inflation and a cooling job market argue for cuts — but the broken Iran ceasefire has oil back above $85, threatening to reverse the disinflation the Fed just banked. Where year-end rates land.
Transcript This is The Probability Desk from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
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