Why it matters
For four weeks in June and July a signed US–Iran memorandum reopened the Strait of Hormuz to toll-free transit. The seven-day moving average of daily transit calls peaked at 26.71. The 2025 average was 75.16; the threshold prediction markets use for "normal traffic" is 60. The memorandum expired on Monday. As of 16 August, the latest reading, the average is 3.57. Editorial scenario analysis only. Not investment, actuarial, or geopolitical advice.
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Produced and edited by the UAO editorial desk. Not investment advice.