The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-14
The strip needs December at 99.9%. The Desk gives it 58%. Futures, the June dot plot and this Desk disagree about the same December meeting — and the gap is no longer about September.
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The Probability Desk
The market has decided December. The Desk gives it a coin flip.
Two weeks after our 31 August forecast, futures price 54 basis points of tightening by Christmas — about 2.1 hikes. The Desk re-forecasts the 9 December target range: one hike is now the base, a second is a coin flip, and the market's tail is too fat.
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-09
The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its Short-Term Energy Outlook this morning and put Brent at $83 a barrel in March 2027. The full path it published — $93 in September, then $92, $91, $89, $87, $85, $83, and on down to $62 by December 2027 — is fifteen consecutive monthly declines
The Probability Desk
Five forecasts $22 apart — and a 30% chance of the toll regime
The Probability Desk · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · Universal Asset Owners Brent crossed $100 this morning for the first time since July. Five
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-03
The 30-year US Treasury inflation-protected real yield closed at 2.98% on 1 September 2026. In the 4,136 trading days since that series began in February 2010, it has closed at or above 3.00% on exactly seven — and all seven fell between 31 July and 21 August this year. The gold dots on the left pan
The Probability Desk
Three percent real, for thirty years — and a 55% chance it holds
The Probability Desk · Thursday, 3 September 2026 · Universal Asset Owners The 30-year US real yield has spent sixteen years below 3%
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-01
Japan's 10-year hit 3.000% on Tuesday — the exact rate the government's own fiscal 2026 budget assumed. The Ministry has since raised its fiscal 2027 costing rate to 3.8%.
The Probability Desk
Japan's 10-year hits 3%. The Desk's base case is that it stays there.
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, 1 September 2026 Desk view, in one paragraph Tokyo printed the number its own budget was built on.
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-31
Left: where the federal funds target range lands after the 8–9 December FOMC. The Desk model puts 51.9 percent on exactly one increase and 20.1 percent on two or more — 71.98 percent between them. Our published view is 5 / 25 / 50 / 20, a 70 percent chance of at least one hike, two points
The Probability Desk
The Fed's December call moved 25 points in three sessions. Ours moved with it.
The Probability Desk · Monday 31 August 2026 · Universal Asset Owners Desk view in one paragraph Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-26
Brent fell three sessions on the Iran–Oman corridor framework, yet the strait’s own feed still prints 5 transits a day against a 2025 norm of 85.5. In June a real framework moved that line from 5 to 31.9 in twelve days. The Desk weights a 45% chance the 7-day mean prints 30 by 31 March 2027.
The Probability Desk
The Hormuz corridor rally is pricing ships that have not sailed
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, 26 August 2026 Oil gave back most of a week's war premium in three sessions because
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