Coverage, charts, video and research on The Probability Desk for universal owners.
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
Soft June inflation and a cooling job market argue for cuts — but the broken Iran ceasefire has oil back above $85, threatening to reverse the disinflation the Fed just banked. Where year-end rates land.
Transcript This is The Probability Desk from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
Who Gets Crowded Out When Big Tech Borrows a Trillion The Probability Desk — Wednesday, July 1, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph.
Our 50,000-path scenario model assigns a 55% probability the 30-year JGB averages >=4.00% over 12 months — judgment-weighted, not market-implied.
The Probability Desk — Published Monday, June 22, 2026 · Updated through Tuesday, June 24, 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO
Transcript This is The Probability Desk. Friday, June 19th, 2026. The Hormuz deal is being tested for the first time. Lebanon broke
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