The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-18
Japan's 30-year bond closed at 4.047% on 17 September. In the tenor's entire 6,626-day history it has closed at or above 4% on 25 days — all of them since 18 May 2026.
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Probability Desk Chart of the Day
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The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-14
The strip needs December at 99.9%. The Desk gives it 58%. Futures, the June dot plot and this Desk disagree about the same December meeting — and the gap is no longer about September.
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-09
The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its Short-Term Energy Outlook this morning and put Brent at $83 a barrel in March 2027. The full path it published — $93 in September, then $92, $91, $89, $87, $85, $83, and on down to $62 by December 2027 — is fifteen consecutive monthly declines
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-03
The 30-year US Treasury inflation-protected real yield closed at 2.98% on 1 September 2026. In the 4,136 trading days since that series began in February 2010, it has closed at or above 3.00% on exactly seven — and all seven fell between 31 July and 21 August this year. The gold dots on the left pan
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-01
Japan's 10-year hit 3.000% on Tuesday — the exact rate the government's own fiscal 2026 budget assumed. The Ministry has since raised its fiscal 2027 costing rate to 3.8%.
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-31
Left: where the federal funds target range lands after the 8–9 December FOMC. The Desk model puts 51.9 percent on exactly one increase and 20.1 percent on two or more — 71.98 percent between them. Our published view is 5 / 25 / 50 / 20, a 70 percent chance of at least one hike, two points
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-26
Brent fell three sessions on the Iran–Oman corridor framework, yet the strait’s own feed still prints 5 transits a day against a 2025 norm of 85.5. In June a real framework moved that line from 5 to 31.9 in twelve days. The Desk weights a 45% chance the 7-day mean prints 30 by 31 March 2027.
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-20
For four weeks in June and July a signed US–Iran memorandum reopened the Strait of Hormuz to toll-free transit. The seven-day moving average of daily transit calls peaked at 26.71. The 2025 average was 75.16; the threshold prediction markets use for "normal traffic" is 60. The memorandum expired on
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-18
The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning — a 19-year high — leaving the official H.15 series nineteen basis points from 5.50%. Four quantitative estimates of the same barrier question span twenty-five percentage points: a 50,000-path Monte Carlo at 53%, the full-sample base rate at 60%,
The Probability Desk
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-17
On 3 August the Governor of Texas directed ERCOT to audit every data centre in its interconnection queue before any further project advances, and ERCOT suspended a classification step due four days later. On 11 August the EIA cut its Texas 2027 load-growth forecast from 14% to 6% and named the pause
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