Why it matters
On 3 August the Governor of Texas directed ERCOT to audit every data centre in its interconnection queue before any further project advances, and ERCOT suspended a classification step due four days later. On 11 August the EIA cut its Texas 2027 load-growth forecast from 14% to 6% and named the pause as the cause. On 14 August ERCOT told the Public Utility Commission the audit covers 250 to 300 projects representing roughly 200 GW, and would take "several months, but less than nine months." That last phrase is what this chart grades: the right edge of the gold band, 30 April 2027, sits just inside nine months from ERCOT's own statement, so the red band is near enough ERCOT breaching the bound it set for itself. The Desk weights it at 35%, against 55% that the gate reopens narrower between November and April, and 10% by Halloween. The right panel is the part most models omit — across thirteen specifications the tail runs from 30% to 51%, and that envelope, not the ±0.44-point sampling interval on 50,000 paths, is the uncertainty worth quoting. Every parameter in the model is judgmental; none is fitted, and the report says so. For a universal owner the megawatts are the small story: only 1.2 GW of ERCOT data-centre capacity was due before the first quarter of 2027. The large story is that the most permissive large-load jurisdiction in the United States has demonstrated its permission was discretionary — a fact not priced into the multiples at which this readership has been buying domestic digital infrastructure. Editorial scenario analysis only. Not investment, actuarial, or geopolitical advice.
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Produced and edited by the UAO editorial desk. Not investment advice.