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US 10- and 30-year Treasury yields against the Fed target upper bound
Chart of the Day

US 10- and 30-year Treasury yields against the Fed target upper bound

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis series DGS10, DGS30 and DFEDTARU. Treasury series end 17 September 2026; DFEDTARU is a seven-day series sourced to FOMC releases and runs to 20 September 2026. Only dated observations are plotted; neither Treasury series is a liability-discount curve. Retr

UAO Editorial · Sep 21, 2026
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-18
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-18

Japan's 30-year bond closed at 4.047% on 17 September. In the tenor's entire 6,626-day history it has closed at or above 4% on 25 days — all of them since 18 May 2026.

UAO Editorial · Sep 18, 2026
Probability of the fed funds target range after the 8-9 December 2026 FOMC
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-14

The strip needs December at 99.9%. The Desk gives it 58%. Futures, the June dot plot and this Desk disagree about the same December meeting — and the gap is no longer about September.

UAO Editorial · Sep 14, 2026
The official oil forecast is a line. The question is a distribution.
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-09-09

The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its Short-Term Energy Outlook this morning and put Brent at $83 a barrel in March 2027. The full path it published — $93 in September, then $92, $91, $89, $87, $85, $83, and on down to $62 by December 2027 — is fifteen consecutive monthly declines

UAO Editorial · Sep 9, 2026
Canada–US goods trade before the counter-tariffs
Chart of the Day

Canada–US goods trade before the counter-tariffs

On 4 September 2026 the Securities and Exchange Commission filed, in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, an application for an order to show cause and an order compelling Institutional Shareholder Services, Inc. to comply with an administrative subpoena. The docket is 2:26-mc-00078 ; the

UAO Editorial · Sep 8, 2026
Four balance sheets, one assignment
Chart of the Day

Four balance sheets, one assignment

Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported that official reserves fell to $1,207.5 billion at the end of August, down $79.6 billion, or 6.18% , from $1,287.1 billion a month earlier. It is the largest monthly fall on record.

UAO Editorial · Sep 7, 2026
Chart of the Day
Chart of the Day

Chart of the Day

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (weekly, latest observation 28 Aug 2026); ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread and CBOE VIX (daily, latest observations 3 Sep 2026). Series carry different observation frequencies and end dates; no spot and futures series are mixed.

UAO Editorial · Sep 5, 2026
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