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Chart of the Day

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One line says corridor. The other says five ships a day.
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-26

Brent fell three sessions on the Iran–Oman corridor framework, yet the strait’s own feed still prints 5 transits a day against a 2025 norm of 85.5. In June a real framework moved that line from 5 to 31.9 in twelve days. The Desk weights a 45% chance the 7-day mean prints 30 by 31 March 2027.

UAO Editorial · Aug 26, 2026
Chart of the day — 2026-08-26
Chart of the Day

Chart of the day — 2026-08-26

Sources: Tungsten West plc, “Strategic Investment by the UK Government NWF”, RNS, 25 August 2026;

UAO Editorial · Aug 26, 2026
Chart of the day — 2026-08-25
Chart of the Day

Chart of the day — 2026-08-25

Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, release dated 24 August 2026, carrying

UAO Editorial · Aug 25, 2026
Chart of the day — specification
Chart of the Day

Chart of the day — specification

Source: Federal Reserve H.15 (DFII30, DFII10), latest observation 19 August 2026. Diamonds mark auction stop-out yields — a different measure from the daily constant-maturity curve.

UAO Editorial · Aug 21, 2026
Chart of the Day: The Reopening Already Happened. It Got to 27.
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-20

For four weeks in June and July a signed US–Iran memorandum reopened the Strait of Hormuz to toll-free transit. The seven-day moving average of daily transit calls peaked at 26.71. The 2025 average was 75.16; the threshold prediction markets use for "normal traffic" is 60. The memorandum expired on

UAO Editorial · Aug 20, 2026
Chart of the Day: Four Estimates, One Published Number
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-18

The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning — a 19-year high — leaving the official H.15 series nineteen basis points from 5.50%. Four quantitative estimates of the same barrier question span twenty-five percentage points: a 50,000-path Monte Carlo at 53%, the full-sample base rate at 60%,

UAO Editorial · Aug 18, 2026
The circular capital stack
Chart of the Day

The circular capital stack

The circular capital stack. All figures from NVIDIA’s Form 8-K (17 August 2026), the NVIDIA and OpenAI releases (17 August) and the US DOE fact sheet (February 2026). The $105bn is a contingent cap, not deployed capital.

UAO Editorial · Aug 18, 2026
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-17
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-17

On 3 August the Governor of Texas directed ERCOT to audit every data centre in its interconnection queue before any further project advances, and ERCOT suspended a classification step due four days later. On 11 August the EIA cut its Texas 2027 load-growth forecast from 14% to 6% and named the pause

UAO Editorial · Aug 17, 2026
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