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10-year and 2-year Treasury constant-maturity yields (Board of Governors H.15 daily readings, not intraday highs), VIX (CBOE via FRED) and US high-yield OAS (ICE BofA via FRED) to 2 September 2026; St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (weekly) to 28 August 2026, scaled ×10 for display. Ser
The 30-year US Treasury inflation-protected real yield closed at 2.98% on 1 September 2026. In the 4,136 trading days since that series began in February 2010, it has closed at or above 3.00% on exactly seven — and all seven fell between 31 July and 21 August this year. The gold dots on the left pan
The 2-year rose 22 basis points and the 10-year 15 across six sessions to 1 September; the spread narrowed to 0.40. Both are Federal Reserve constant-maturity series — no futures or spot series is mixed in. FRED carried no 2 September level value at time of writing.
Totals and end-February Level C from the Bank of England’s 2025–26 market-operations report; the September 2025 and September 2026 Level C points are Reuters calculations from BoE auction filings. Figures are ILTR borrowing allocated against a collateral set, not collateral value.
Japan's 10-year hit 3.000% on Tuesday — the exact rate the government's own fiscal 2026 budget assumed. The Ministry has since raised its fiscal 2027 costing rate to 3.8%.
FRED DGS10 through 28 Aug; 31 Aug close per U.S. Treasury daily yield curve.
Left: where the federal funds target range lands after the 8–9 December FOMC. The Desk model puts 51.9 percent on exactly one increase and 20.1 percent on two or more — 71.98 percent between them. Our published view is 5 / 25 / 50 / 20, a 70 percent chance of at least one hike, two points
Thursday’s seven-year high yield, 4.512 percent, against the four-week bill at 3.650 percent and the eight-week bill at 3.670 percent. One is a coupon on a note. The other two are discount rates on bills.
Brent fell three sessions on the Iran–Oman corridor framework, yet the strait’s own feed still prints 5 transits a day against a 2025 norm of 85.5. In June a real framework moved that line from 5 to 31.9 in twelve days. The Desk weights a 45% chance the 7-day mean prints 30 by 31 March 2027.
Sources: Tungsten West plc, “Strategic Investment by the UK Government NWF”, RNS, 25 August 2026;
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