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Chart of the day — 2026-08-25
Chart of the Day

Chart of the day — 2026-08-25

Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, release dated 24 August 2026, carrying

UAO Editorial · Aug 25, 2026
Chart of the day — specification
Chart of the Day

Chart of the day — specification

Source: Federal Reserve H.15 (DFII30, DFII10), latest observation 19 August 2026. Diamonds mark auction stop-out yields — a different measure from the daily constant-maturity curve.

UAO Editorial · Aug 21, 2026
Chart of the Day: The Reopening Already Happened. It Got to 27.
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-20

For four weeks in June and July a signed US–Iran memorandum reopened the Strait of Hormuz to toll-free transit. The seven-day moving average of daily transit calls peaked at 26.71. The 2025 average was 75.16; the threshold prediction markets use for "normal traffic" is 60. The memorandum expired on

UAO Editorial · Aug 20, 2026
Chart of the Day: Four Estimates, One Published Number
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-18

The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning — a 19-year high — leaving the official H.15 series nineteen basis points from 5.50%. Four quantitative estimates of the same barrier question span twenty-five percentage points: a 50,000-path Monte Carlo at 53%, the full-sample base rate at 60%,

UAO Editorial · Aug 18, 2026
The circular capital stack
Chart of the Day

The circular capital stack

The circular capital stack. All figures from NVIDIA’s Form 8-K (17 August 2026), the NVIDIA and OpenAI releases (17 August) and the US DOE fact sheet (February 2026). The $105bn is a contingent cap, not deployed capital.

UAO Editorial · Aug 18, 2026
PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-17
The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-17

On 3 August the Governor of Texas directed ERCOT to audit every data centre in its interconnection queue before any further project advances, and ERCOT suspended a classification step due four days later. On 11 August the EIA cut its Texas 2027 load-growth forecast from 14% to 6% and named the pause

UAO Editorial · Aug 17, 2026
Owned versus voted
Chart of the Day

Owned versus voted

Norges Bank Investment Management published holdings, as at 30 June 2026. Three inspected holdings shown; percentages are of each company, not of the fund.

UAO Editorial · Aug 14, 2026
Six announcements across the stage ledger
Chart of the Day

Six announcements across the stage ledger

Six announcements across the stage ledger. Stages assigned by UAO from the primary announcement documents — Bank of America, NVIDIA, Goldman Sachs, Cleanaway (via ASX) and the Presidency of Colombia, 10–13 August 2026. Marker area is proportional to the headline figure; solid markers are b

UAO Editorial · Aug 13, 2026
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