Chart of the day — 2026-08-25
Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, release dated 24 August 2026, carrying
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Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, release dated 24 August 2026, carrying
Source: Federal Reserve H.15 (DFII30, DFII10), latest observation 19 August 2026. Diamonds mark auction stop-out yields — a different measure from the daily constant-maturity curve.
For four weeks in June and July a signed US–Iran memorandum reopened the Strait of Hormuz to toll-free transit. The seven-day moving average of daily transit calls peaked at 26.71. The 2025 average was 75.16; the threshold prediction markets use for "normal traffic" is 60. The memorandum expired on
The repricing is in the long end, not the policy rate.
The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning — a 19-year high — leaving the official H.15 series nineteen basis points from 5.50%. Four quantitative estimates of the same barrier question span twenty-five percentage points: a 50,000-path Monte Carlo at 53%, the full-sample base rate at 60%,
The circular capital stack. All figures from NVIDIA’s Form 8-K (17 August 2026), the NVIDIA and OpenAI releases (17 August) and the US DOE fact sheet (February 2026). The $105bn is a contingent cap, not deployed capital.
On 3 August the Governor of Texas directed ERCOT to audit every data centre in its interconnection queue before any further project advances, and ERCOT suspended a classification step due four days later. On 11 August the EIA cut its Texas 2027 load-growth forecast from 14% to 6% and named the pause
Hormuz commodity transits, Kpler via Reuters reprints. Vendor observation. Not an official tally.
Norges Bank Investment Management published holdings, as at 30 June 2026. Three inspected holdings shown; percentages are of each company, not of the fund.
Six announcements across the stage ledger. Stages assigned by UAO from the primary announcement documents — Bank of America, NVIDIA, Goldman Sachs, Cleanaway (via ASX) and the Presidency of Colombia, 10–13 August 2026. Marker area is proportional to the headline figure; solid markers are b
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