Why it matters
The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning — a 19-year high — leaving the official H.15 series nineteen basis points from 5.50%. Four quantitative estimates of the same barrier question span twenty-five percentage points: a 50,000-path Monte Carlo at 53%, the full-sample base rate at 60%, the carry-neutral forward with realised volatility at 65%, the post-2022 base rate at 78%. The spread is one structural decision — whether the next four months' uncertainty lives in which regime the long bond is in, or in day-to-day noise inside a known regime — worth twelve points at identical terminal dispersion. The Desk publishes 60%. Editorial scenario analysis only. Not investment, actuarial, or geopolitical advice.
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Produced and edited by the UAO editorial desk. Not investment advice.