The Probability Desk

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-26

Brent fell three sessions on the Iran–Oman corridor framework, yet the strait’s own feed still prints 5 transits a day against a 2025 norm of 85.5. In June a real framework moved that line from 5 to 31.9 in twelve days. The Desk weights a 45% chance the 7-day mean prints 30 by 31 March 2027.

One line says corridor. The other says five ships a day.

Why it matters

Brent fell three sessions on the Iran–Oman corridor framework, yet the strait’s own feed still prints 5 transits a day against a 2025 norm of 85.5. In June a real framework moved that line from 5 to 31.9 in twelve days. The Desk weights a 45% chance the 7-day mean prints 30 by 31 March 2027.

Read the full scenario


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