The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — Scenario Video — 2026-07-02
Transcript This is The Probability Desk from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
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Coverage, charts, video and research on The Probability Desk for universal owners.
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The Probability Desk
57,000 Jobs, 4.2% Inflation: The Fed's Two-Sided Bind
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-07-01
Who Gets Crowded Out When Big Tech Borrows a Trillion The Probability Desk — Wednesday, July 1, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — Japan's 30-year anchor: how high, how fast?
Our 50,000-path scenario model assigns a 55% probability the 30-year JGB averages >=4.00% over 12 months — judgment-weighted, not market-implied.
The Probability Desk
Japan's New 3.8% Anchor: What Happens When the World's Suppressed Long Bond Reprices
The Probability Desk — Published Monday, June 22, 2026 · Updated through Tuesday, June 24, 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — Scenario Video — 2026-06-19
Transcript This is The Probability Desk. Friday, June 19th, 2026. The Hormuz deal is being tested for the first time. Lebanon broke
The Probability Desk
Lebanon Breaks the Nuclear Calendar — Does It Open the Warsh Hike Window?
The Probability Desk | Friday, June 19, 2026 Executive Summary On June 19, 2026, the opening round of US-Iran nuclear talks in
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk | The Vanishing Cut — and the Hike Nobody's Ready For
The tail has flipped. For the first time this cycle, the market is pricing a hike. The Desk weighs three scenarios: 55% hold, 30% hike, 15% cut.
The Probability Desk
Watch: The Power Wall
The Power Wall — the Probability Desk weekend cinematic. Watch, then read the full scenario report.
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