The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — Scenario Video — May 27, 2026
A three-minute probability-weighted scenario video on a contested Strait of Hormuz — base case, upside and tail for long-horizon capital.
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The Closed Strait: How Long Should Capital Plan for a Disrupted Hormuz?
A Probability Desk flagship: a real 50,000-path Monte Carlo on the 2026 Strait of Hormuz shock and the UAE's exit from OPEC — and what a structurally higher energy-security premium means for universal owners.
The Probability Desk
How long should capital plan for a closed Strait?
The trigger Two structural moves landed in the same month. The UAE formally left OPEC, effective 1 May 2026, and the remaining
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