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The Probability Desk
Coverage, charts, video and research on The Probability Desk for universal owners.
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The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-06-02: Funding the Buildout
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk
When the Whole Market Has to Fund the Buildout: Alphabet's $80bn Raise and the AI Capex Cycle
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, June 2, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph. On June 1, 2026, Alphabet did something it had never
The Probability Desk
The Simulation Leg: What an Agent-Based Model Sees in the Chokepoint Trade
The Probability Desk now runs a multi-agent simulation over its chokepoint scenario. It moves zero of the published probability — its job is to surface the transmission channels analysts under-weight. Here is what the first run found.
The Probability Desk
Probability Desk — End of Day, May 30, 2026
Where the desk's governed beliefs stand tonight: the Risk Radar load, what moved, the consensus blind spot, and the question for tomorrow.
The Probability Desk
Owners, not renters: why these risks aren't a hedge-fund trade
A hedge fund rents risk and can exit; a universal owner owns the whole economy and cannot. For each risk on the live Radar, the hedge-fund trade vs the multi-decade question only a long-horizon owner has to answer.
The Probability Desk
The Universal Owner Risk Radar: the long-tail risks permanent capital isn't pricing
Radar load 7.7/100 — 10 structural risks, 7 rising. 2026-06-19: AI capex eased 2pp (17→15%); Hormuz 55% not-normal held; consensus gap narrowed to ~15pp.
The Probability Desk
The Duration Reckoning — Cinematic
The 6-minute Probability Desk cinematic on whether the term premium has returned for good — companion to the full scenario report.
Watch — The Slow Unpegging: The Probability Desk Cinematic
A five-minute cinematic scenario film on de-dollarization, the gold pivot, and the next reserve order. Read the full flagship report alongside it.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-05-29: The Reopening Trade
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk
The Reopening Trade: How Long Until Hormuz Flows Return
The Probability Desk — Friday, May 29, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. Desk View,
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