The Probability Desk
The Concentration Trap: How Does the Most Top-Heavy US Market in 50 Years Resolve?
The Probability Desk · June 13, 2026 Executive Summary — Desk View in One Paragraph The S&P 500 closed Friday, June 12
Topic
The Probability Desk
Coverage, charts, video and research on The Probability Desk for universal owners.
Latest in The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk
The Hormuz Transit-Fee Gambit: Does a Partial Deal Reopen the World's Most Contested Chokepoint?
The Probability Desk · June 11, 2026 Executive Summary — Desk View in One Paragraph Iran's June 8 announcement that the Strait
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 11, 2026: The Hormuz Transit-Fee Gambit
Iran and Oman announce Hormuz transit fees — the first-ever — while US forces strike Iranian radar sites. The Desk assigns 45% to contested partial restoration, 25% to rapid normalization, and 30% to re-escalation. The distribution is bimodal: the median is the wrong number to position for.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — PM settle update — 2026-06-09
The 30Y closed fractionally below 5.00% for the first time in three weeks, but on a single-session Iran-headline duration bid — not a thesis break. Headline P(30Y avg >5.00%) holds at 55%. Thursday's 30Y auction is the decisive test.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 9, 2026: The 5% Anchor
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: whether the risk-free rate — the number underneath nearly every long-
The Probability Desk
The 5% Anchor: Has the Risk-Free Rate Reset for a Decade?
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, 9 June 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO Probability Desk on the single number that
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 8, 2026: A Trickle Into a Tight Market
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: where the price of oil settles by year-end — and what
The Probability Desk
OPEC+ Adds a Trickle Into a Tight Market: Where Does Brent Settle by Year-End?
The Probability Desk — Monday, June 8, 2026. Editorial scenario analysis for universal asset owners. Desk view, in one paragraph. On Sunday, June
The Probability Desk
The Copper Reckoning — Cinematic
The weekend cinematic from The Probability Desk: can the world wire the future it has promised? Watch the five-minute film, then read the full scenario report.
The Daily Brief
The morning briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital.
Research, charts, video and podcast analysis for the institutions investing at the scale of the world.
Five minutes, five days a week. Complimentary — subscriptions are reviewed by our editorial desk, and you'll receive a notice once approved.
You’re on the list. Tomorrow’s brief will arrive in your inbox.
Please enter a valid email.