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The Probability Desk
Coverage, charts, video and research on The Probability Desk for universal owners.
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The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 5, 2026: The Hot-Jobs Trap
Video pending upload — the transcript is below; the player appears once the video is hosted. Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-06-05
The Hot-Jobs Trap: Will Warsh's Fed Cut at All in 2026? The Probability Desk · Friday, June 5, 2026 · Universal
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 4, 2026: The Reopening Question
Will the Strait of Hormuz return to 90% of normal flow by September? The Desk assigns a 55% base case to a fragile half-life, 25% tail to re-closure, and 20% upside to a clean reopening — against a market pricing calm at $97 Brent.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 3, 2026: The $13 Trillion Door and the Cracking Asset Class
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — what's most likely to happen next, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk
The $13 Trillion Door Opens as Private Credit Cracks: Whose Money Arrives Last?
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, June 3, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph. On June 1, 2026, the public comment period closed on
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-06-02: Funding the Buildout
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk
When the Whole Market Has to Fund the Buildout: Alphabet's $80bn Raise and the AI Capex Cycle
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, June 2, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph. On June 1, 2026, Alphabet did something it had never
The Probability Desk
The Simulation Leg: What an Agent-Based Model Sees in the Chokepoint Trade
The Probability Desk now runs a multi-agent simulation over its chokepoint scenario. It moves zero of the published probability — its job is to surface the transmission channels analysts under-weight. Here is what the first run found.
The Probability Desk
Probability Desk — End of Day, May 30, 2026
Where the desk's governed beliefs stand tonight: the Risk Radar load, what moved, the consensus blind spot, and the question for tomorrow.
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