The Probability Desk
57,000 Jobs, 4.2% Inflation: The Fed's Two-Sided Bind
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
Topic
Probability-Weighted Futures
Coverage, charts, video and research on Probability-Weighted Futures for universal owners.
Latest in Probability-Weighted Futures
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-07-01
Who Gets Crowded Out When Big Tech Borrows a Trillion The Probability Desk — Wednesday, July 1, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph.
The Probability Desk
Japan's New 3.8% Anchor: What Happens When the World's Suppressed Long Bond Reprices
The Probability Desk — Published Monday, June 22, 2026 · Updated through Tuesday, June 24, 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO
The Probability Desk
Lebanon Breaks the Nuclear Calendar — Does It Open the Warsh Hike Window?
The Probability Desk | Friday, June 19, 2026 Executive Summary On June 19, 2026, the opening round of US-Iran nuclear talks in
The Probability Desk
The Concentration Trap: How Does the Most Top-Heavy US Market in 50 Years Resolve?
The Probability Desk · June 13, 2026 Executive Summary — Desk View in One Paragraph The S&P 500 closed Friday, June 12
The Probability Desk
The Hormuz Transit-Fee Gambit: Does a Partial Deal Reopen the World's Most Contested Chokepoint?
The Probability Desk · June 11, 2026 Executive Summary — Desk View in One Paragraph Iran's June 8 announcement that the Strait
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — PM settle update — 2026-06-09
The 30Y closed fractionally below 5.00% for the first time in three weeks, but on a single-session Iran-headline duration bid — not a thesis break. Headline P(30Y avg >5.00%) holds at 55%. Thursday's 30Y auction is the decisive test.
The Probability Desk
The 5% Anchor: Has the Risk-Free Rate Reset for a Decade?
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, 9 June 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO Probability Desk on the single number that
The Probability Desk
OPEC+ Adds a Trickle Into a Tight Market: Where Does Brent Settle by Year-End?
The Probability Desk — Monday, June 8, 2026. Editorial scenario analysis for universal asset owners. Desk view, in one paragraph. On Sunday, June
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-06-05
The Hot-Jobs Trap: Will Warsh's Fed Cut at All in 2026? The Probability Desk · Friday, June 5, 2026 · Universal
The Probability Desk
The $13 Trillion Door Opens as Private Credit Cracks: Whose Money Arrives Last?
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, June 3, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph. On June 1, 2026, the public comment period closed on
The Probability Desk
When the Whole Market Has to Fund the Buildout: Alphabet's $80bn Raise and the AI Capex Cycle
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, June 2, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph. On June 1, 2026, Alphabet did something it had never
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