The Probability Desk
The $13 Trillion Door Opens as Private Credit Cracks: Whose Money Arrives Last?
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, June 3, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph. On June 1, 2026, the public comment period closed on
Topic
Probability-Weighted Futures
Coverage, charts, video and research on Probability-Weighted Futures for universal owners.
Latest in Probability-Weighted Futures
The Probability Desk
When the Whole Market Has to Fund the Buildout: Alphabet's $80bn Raise and the AI Capex Cycle
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, June 2, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph. On June 1, 2026, Alphabet did something it had never
The Probability Desk
The Simulation Leg: What an Agent-Based Model Sees in the Chokepoint Trade
The Probability Desk now runs a multi-agent simulation over its chokepoint scenario. It moves zero of the published probability — its job is to surface the transmission channels analysts under-weight. Here is what the first run found.
The Probability Desk
The Reopening Trade: How Long Until Hormuz Flows Return
The Probability Desk — Friday, May 29, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. Desk View,
The Probability Desk
How long should capital plan for a closed Strait?
The trigger Two structural moves landed in the same month. The UAE formally left OPEC, effective 1 May 2026, and the remaining
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