Coverage, charts, video and research on Probability-Weighted Futures for universal owners.
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
Soft June inflation and a cooling job market argue for cuts — but the broken Iran ceasefire has oil back above $85, threatening to reverse the disinflation the Fed just banked. Where year-end rates land.
The Probability Desk — Thursday, July 2, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. The Trigger
Who Gets Crowded Out When Big Tech Borrows a Trillion The Probability Desk — Wednesday, July 1, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph.
The Probability Desk — Published Monday, June 22, 2026 · Updated through Tuesday, June 24, 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO
The Probability Desk | Friday, June 19, 2026 Executive Summary On June 19, 2026, the opening round of US-Iran nuclear talks in
The Probability Desk · June 13, 2026 Executive Summary — Desk View in One Paragraph The S&P 500 closed Friday, June 12
The Probability Desk · June 11, 2026 Executive Summary — Desk View in One Paragraph Iran's June 8 announcement that the Strait
The 30Y closed fractionally below 5.00% for the first time in three weeks, but on a single-session Iran-headline duration bid — not a thesis break. Headline P(30Y avg >5.00%) holds at 55%. Thursday's 30Y auction is the decisive test.
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, 9 June 2026 A probability-weighted scenario report from the UAO Probability Desk on the single number that
The Probability Desk — Monday, June 8, 2026. Editorial scenario analysis for universal asset owners. Desk view, in one paragraph. On Sunday, June
The Hot-Jobs Trap: Will Warsh's Fed Cut at All in 2026? The Probability Desk · Friday, June 5, 2026 · Universal
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