The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-09-18
The Bank of Japan hiked. The yen fell. Watch the thirty-year. The Probability Desk · Friday 18 September 2026 A probability-weighted
Topic
Probability-Weighted Futures
Coverage, charts, video and research on Probability-Weighted Futures for universal owners.
Latest in Probability-Weighted Futures
The Probability Desk
The market has decided December. The Desk gives it a coin flip.
Two weeks after our 31 August forecast, futures price 54 basis points of tightening by Christmas — about 2.1 hikes. The Desk re-forecasts the 9 December target range: one hike is now the base, a second is a coin flip, and the market's tail is too fat.
The Probability Desk
Five forecasts $22 apart — and a 30% chance of the toll regime
The Probability Desk · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · Universal Asset Owners Brent crossed $100 this morning for the first time since July. Five
The Probability Desk
Three percent real, for thirty years — and a 55% chance it holds
The Probability Desk · Thursday, 3 September 2026 · Universal Asset Owners The 30-year US real yield has spent sixteen years below 3%
The Probability Desk
Japan's 10-year hits 3%. The Desk's base case is that it stays there.
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, 1 September 2026 Desk view, in one paragraph Tokyo printed the number its own budget was built on.
The Probability Desk
The Fed's December call moved 25 points in three sessions. Ours moved with it.
The Probability Desk · Monday 31 August 2026 · Universal Asset Owners Desk view in one paragraph Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson
The Probability Desk
The Hormuz corridor rally is pricing ships that have not sailed
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, 26 August 2026 Oil gave back most of a week's war premium in three sessions because
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-08-22: Does Brent print $100 by 30 September?
Hormuz is shut and the 60-day US-Iran memorandum expired on 17 August with no successor. From spot $93.26, the Desk puts 58% on a $100 Brent print within 30 trading days - below its own 50,000-path model.
The Probability Desk
A signed deal reopened Hormuz to 27 ships a day
Subject line: A signed deal reopened Hormuz to 27 ships a day The Islamabad Memorandum expired on Monday without a successor. It
The Probability Desk
Nineteen basis points from the number that reprices every liability
Subject line: Nineteen basis points from the number that reprices every liability The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-08-17
Texas Just Discovered It Has a Veto Over the AI Build The Probability Desk — Monday, 17 August 2026 The most permissive large-
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-07-18: The 79-Basis-Point Question
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
The Daily Brief
The morning briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital.
Research, charts, video and podcast analysis for the institutions investing at the scale of the world.
Five minutes, five days a week. Complimentary — subscriptions are reviewed by our editorial desk, and you'll receive a notice once approved.
You’re on the list. Tomorrow’s brief will arrive in your inbox.
Please enter a valid email.