Coverage, charts, video and research on Probability-Weighted Futures for universal owners.
Two weeks after our 31 August forecast, futures price 54 basis points of tightening by Christmas — about 2.1 hikes. The Desk re-forecasts the 9 December target range: one hike is now the base, a second is a coin flip, and the market's tail is too fat.
The Probability Desk · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · Universal Asset Owners Brent crossed $100 this morning for the first time since July. Five
The Probability Desk · Thursday, 3 September 2026 · Universal Asset Owners The 30-year US real yield has spent sixteen years below 3%
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, 1 September 2026 Desk view, in one paragraph Tokyo printed the number its own budget was built on.
The Probability Desk · Monday 31 August 2026 · Universal Asset Owners Desk view in one paragraph Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, 26 August 2026 Oil gave back most of a week's war premium in three sessions because
Hormuz is shut and the 60-day US-Iran memorandum expired on 17 August with no successor. From spot $93.26, the Desk puts 58% on a $100 Brent print within 30 trading days - below its own 50,000-path model.
Subject line: A signed deal reopened Hormuz to 27 ships a day The Islamabad Memorandum expired on Monday without a successor. It
Subject line: Nineteen basis points from the number that reprices every liability The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning
Texas Just Discovered It Has a Veto Over the AI Build The Probability Desk — Monday, 17 August 2026 The most permissive large-
Oil carries a war premium, equities are selling their AI winners, and high-yield credit sits at 271bp as if nothing happened. The Desk prices the odds that calm breaks by September 30.
Soft June inflation and a cooling job market argue for cuts — but the broken Iran ceasefire has oil back above $85, threatening to reverse the disinflation the Fed just banked. Where year-end rates land.
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