The governance and behaviour required to actually invest for decades.
The Probability Desk now runs a multi-agent simulation over its chokepoint scenario. It moves zero of the published probability — its job is to surface the transmission channels analysts under-weight. Here is what the first run found.
Wall Street closed May at records, the curve rallied, and the ECB called the calm borrowed — plus a wall-to-wall data week, and one chart.
Every AI-governance proposal lost, the biggest fund couldn't move it, and one chart.
The Probability Desk — Friday, May 29, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. Desk View,
A "tilt home" decision in Seoul, a $4.2bn AI bet from Jakarta, and one chart of the new mega-allocator policy mix.
The trigger Two structural moves landed in the same month. The UAE formally left OPEC, effective 1 May 2026, and the remaining
A 17% PE target, a new 8% private-credit bucket, the FSB's first private-credit warning — and one chart.
$15tn in state hands, the Gulf 7 at 43% of all dealmaking, Indonesia joins — and one chart.
30-year yields hit multi-decade highs from Tokyo to London on an oil shock. Brussels cuts growth, Jakarta hikes, and AI's power bill keeps rising. One chart, one take.
The binding constraint on AI is electricity, not chips — and a universal owner sits on every side of it. One long read, one chart.
Fitch puts US private-credit defaults at a record 6%, with most stress hidden in PIK. The Big Three split their stewardship. The Fed reshuffles its fears. One chart, one take.
The institutions with liabilities measured in decades — and mandates measured in generations — are the natural underwriters of the off-Earth economy. This is what that means, soberly assessed.
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