The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-06-05
The Hot-Jobs Trap: Will Warsh's Fed Cut at All in 2026? The Probability Desk · Friday, June 5, 2026 · Universal
Topic
Long-Horizon Capital
The governance and behaviour required to actually invest for decades.
Latest in Long-Horizon Capital
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Sovereign capital flowed to developed markets even as reserve managers trimmed the dollar — and one chart.
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The $13 Trillion Door Opens as Private Credit Cracks: Whose Money Arrives Last?
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Pensions split on private markets at July 1 | Jun 3
Alaska trims, Washington builds, the FSB warns — and one chart.
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When the Whole Market Has to Fund the Buildout: Alphabet's $80bn Raise and the AI Capex Cycle
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Gulf funds spent $26bn through the war | Jun 2
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Official PMI stalls at 50.0, the private survey jumps to 51.8 — and one chart.
The Probability Desk
The Simulation Leg: What an Agent-Based Model Sees in the Chokepoint Trade
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Record highs on a ceasefire bet | May 30
Wall Street closed May at records, the curve rallied, and the ECB called the calm borrowed — plus a wall-to-wall data week, and one chart.
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Meta's AGM and the ceiling of stewardship | May 29
Every AI-governance proposal lost, the biggest fund couldn't move it, and one chart.
The Probability Desk
The Reopening Trade: How Long Until Hormuz Flows Return
The Probability Desk — Friday, May 29, 2026 Base cases. Tail risks. Second-order effects. For capital that thinks in decades. Desk View,
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Korea's $1.2trn pension votes today | May 28
A "tilt home" decision in Seoul, a $4.2bn AI bet from Jakarta, and one chart of the new mega-allocator policy mix.
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