The Probability Desk
How long should capital plan for a closed Strait?
The trigger Two structural moves landed in the same month. The UAE formally left OPEC, effective 1 May 2026, and the remaining
Topic
Long-Horizon Capital
The governance and behaviour required to actually invest for decades.
Latest in Long-Horizon Capital
Daily Brief
CalPERS tears down its silos | May 27
A 17% PE target, a new 8% private-credit bucket, the FSB's first private-credit warning — and one chart.
Daily Brief
Sovereign capital is now AI's banker | May 26
$15tn in state hands, the Gulf 7 at 43% of all dealmaking, Indonesia joins — and one chart.
Daily Brief
The long bond repriced everywhere at once | May 25
30-year yields hit multi-decade highs from Tokyo to London on an oil shock. Brussels cuts growth, Jakarta hikes, and AI's power bill keeps rising. One chart, one take.
The Saturday Edit
You already own the AI power bill | May 23
The binding constraint on AI is electricity, not chips — and a universal owner sits on every side of it. One long read, one chart.
Daily Brief
Private credit's record default — and who votes your shares now | May 22
Fitch puts US private-credit defaults at a record 6%, with most stress hidden in PIK. The Big Three split their stewardship. The Fed reshuffles its fears. One chart, one take.
The Frontier
The Two-Hundred-Year Portfolio
The institutions with liabilities measured in decades — and mandates measured in generations — are the natural underwriters of the off-Earth economy. This is what that means, soberly assessed.
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