UAO Editorial

A signed deal reopened Hormuz to 27 ships a day

Subject line: A signed deal reopened Hormuz to 27 ships a day The Islamabad Memorandum expired on Monday without a successor. It

Treasury doubled a cap. Blue Owl filled 27% of tenders.

Treasury is enlarging scheduled long-end buybacks as private-credit funds enforce contractual limits. The lesson is not that public bonds have a new backstop; it is that quoted liquidity and contractual access are different things.

Chart of the day — 2026-08-20

CPP voted against 950 directors. SEC ends no-action letters.

The SEC stopped answering. An insurer reclassified $16bn. The 30-year hit its highest since 2007. Four gaps opened this week between the risk a long-horizon owner holds and the systems used to measure, govern and price it.

The repricing is in the long end, not the policy rate

The repricing is in the long end, not the policy rate.

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-18

The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning — a 19-year high — leaving the official H.15 series nineteen basis points from 5.50%. Four quantitative estimates of the same barrier question span twenty-five percentage points: a 50,000-path Monte Carlo at 53%, the full-sample base rate at 60%,

Nineteen basis points from the number that reprices every liability

Subject line: Nineteen basis points from the number that reprices every liability The 30-year Treasury touched 5.33% on Tuesday morning

The circular capital stack

The circular capital stack. All figures from NVIDIA’s Form 8-K (17 August 2026), the NVIDIA and OpenAI releases (17 August) and the US DOE fact sheet (February 2026). The $105bn is a contingent cap, not deployed capital.

NVIDIA capped it at $105bn. The power is 92% gas.

The 8-K discloses the cap, the trigger and the indemnity. The DOE disclosed the gas in February.

PD Chart of the Day — 2026-08-17

On 3 August the Governor of Texas directed ERCOT to audit every data centre in its interconnection queue before any further project advances, and ERCOT suspended a classification step due four days later. On 11 August the EIA cut its Texas 2027 load-growth forecast from 14% to 6% and named the pause

The Probability Desk — 2026-08-17

Texas Just Discovered It Has a Veto Over the AI Build The Probability Desk — Monday, 17 August 2026 The most permissive large-

UAO Daily Video Brief — August 17: Zero ships crossed Hormuz on Sunday

Reuters, citing Kpler, counted five Saturday transits and none on Sunday, against 31 the weekend before. A vendor zero is not a closed strait.