US utilities have committed to connect 201 GW of new data-centre capacity, enough to raise electricity demand by 30% if it is all built, Wood Mackenzie said on 30 October. Building it is the problem. In Virginia, a hot spot for data centres, the wait for a grid connection is “54 months at best”. In Ohio it is 84 months, which means no power until 2033 for a project starting today. The waitlist for heavy-frame gas turbines has stretched to 278 weeks, with transformers at 162 weeks and circuit breakers at 137. Simon Flowers, its chairman, concluded that beyond what is already committed, “there are no solutions that deliver new supply at any scale in 2027 or 2028”.
Two companies further up the supply chain reported milestones the same week. Centrus Energy said on 29 October that its plant in Oak Ridge, Tennessee had completed and was shipping the first new centrifuge for its uranium-enrichment expansion at Piketon, Ohio, ahead of its year-end target. The first new capacity is still expected in 2029. In Finland, Fortum said on 28 October that long-term electricity demand remains robust, “particularly from data centres, with activity in Finland at a very high level”.
Where the bottleneck rents accrue
When demand is funded and supply is fixed, value moves to whoever controls the scarce input. Hyperscaler capital spending has risen four-fold since 2023 and is set to exceed US$750bn this year, by Wood Mackenzie’s count, so money is not the constraint. Three inputs are.
- Equipment. Waitlists measured in hundreds of weeks give makers of turbines, transformers and switchgear pricing power and long order visibility.
- Connections. A signed, energised grid connection has become the scarce part of a data-centre project, more than the land or the tenant. Developers are routing around the queue: behind-the-meter projects account for 15% of the pipeline by project count and 40% of planned capacity. Wood Mackenzie says lawmakers have also called 400 moratoriums on data-centre proposals.
- Fuel. Nuclear supply is limited by enrichment as well as by reactors. Centrus announced in June that it had been selected for a US$900m Department of Energy task order, worth US$1.07bn with all options, and has announced a US$560m investment at Oak Ridge. There is no commercial US source of HALEU, uranium enriched to between 5% and 20% uranium-235, according to World Nuclear News.
What it means for infrastructure portfolios
For a sovereign fund or pension plan with a large infrastructure allocation, timing matters as much as the thesis. With queues this long, capital committed to a new campus today may wait years for a contracted return, which lengthens the J-curve and raises the value of assets that already have power. In listed portfolios, the scarcity sits with grid equipment, networks and the fuel cycle as much as with data halls. Long-term contracts are spreading the risk. Fortum says its 22-year nuclear power purchase agreement with Google, covering up to 50% of the Loviisa plant’s capacity, provides economic certainty for extending the plant’s life through 2050.
The countervailing risk is that scarcity rents depend on demand arriving on schedule. Fortum’s chief executive, Markus Rauramo, said realisation of demand in the near term “remains gradual”, and told Reuters: “I expect that not all projects will move forward.” Its third-quarter comparable operating profit of €102m narrowly missed analysts’ median forecast of €105m, Reuters reported, and the shares fell 3%. Wood Mackenzie itself warns that adding more capacity before the logjam clears “will only hinder progress”. Finland has proposed a grid-connection prioritisation framework, which Fortum calls a response to debate over data centres, electricity prices and “the allocation of scarce grid capacity”.
What to watch
- 1 January 2027: Finland’s grid-connection rules are planned to take effect. Fortum says the framework “risks undermining investments, electrification and Finland’s competitiveness”.
- 2027 and 2028: no new supply at scale beyond existing commitments, in Wood Mackenzie’s view; the task is to connect supply before demand ramps up beyond 2028.
- 2029: Centrus’s first new enrichment capacity at Piketon is due to come online.
Sources
- Speed to power: solutions to US data centres’ challenges, Wood Mackenzie, 30 October 2026
- Centrus Begins Shipping Centrifuges to Ohio to Support Major Expansion of Uranium Enrichment Capacity, Centrus Energy, 29 October 2026
- Centrus ships first centrifuge for Piketon plant expansion, World Nuclear News, 30 October 2026
- Fortum Corporation January–September 2026 Interim Report, Fortum, 28 October 2026
- Finland’s Fortum misses profit view, says data centres hold up long-term demand, Reuters (via AOL), 28 October 2026