Europe’s benchmark gas price briefly reached €100 per megawatt-hour on 28 October, the first time since 2022, Reuters reported. The Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub was up around 4% from the previous session when it hit the mark, as disruptions to Middle East shipping of liquefied natural gas kept supply tight ahead of winter. Prices are now around triple their level before the US-led war on Iran, though well short of the peak of about €340 reached in August 2022.
The move spread to electricity. Germany’s front-year baseload power contract rose 1.7% to €159.30/MWh, its highest since June 2023, and the French equivalent stood at a near two-year high of €122.50/MWh. EU gas storage was nearly 75% full and Germany’s around 60%, both significantly below last year, Reuters reported, and Europe’s LNG imports were 30% below the previous year in the week ending 9 October, according to Rystad Energy analyst Mathieu Utting.
Three channels into a long-horizon portfolio
The first is industry. Chemicals, fertilisers and steel depend on gas as a fuel or raw material, and some companies have already reduced output. Equity and credit exposure to energy-intensive European manufacturers is the most direct casualty of a price that stays near €100 through the heating season.
The second is utilities, where the effect cuts both ways. Higher forward power prices support earnings at generators with low fuel costs, while suppliers that buy gas for household customers carry the squeeze until tariffs reset. Politics adds a layer of risk. EU governments have spent €17.9 billion this year to cushion the effects of high prices, the European Commission said in a note cited by Reuters, and support on that scale keeps fresh intervention in energy pricing on the table.
The third, and slowest, channel runs through inflation-linked liabilities. Euro-area inflation was 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August, Eurostat said on 16 October. Energy prices were 18.9% higher than a year earlier and contributed 1.71 percentage points to the headline rate. Because retail contracts lag wholesale prices, most of the hit to household bills comes in 2027, Reuters reported. For pension schemes that index benefits to prices, that points to higher indexation costs long after the wholesale spike fades. Higher nominal yields would lower the present value of fixed obligations, but they do little for benefits that rise with prices; that is the gap inflation-linked bonds and real assets with indexed revenues are designed to cover. The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October and said energy prices had continued to rise, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook, Alliance News reported.
Why the spike may not stick
The price touched €100 only briefly. Equinor’s chief executive warned that Europe could face another spike if cold weather boosts demand later in the season. Storage rules were also loosened last year. The EU’s binding 90% filling target can now be met at any point between 1 October and 1 December, with a 10% flexibility where filling is difficult, which the Commission may widen by up to a further 5%. That eases the pressure on buyers to chase cargoes at any price. Against that, analysts and industry forecasters cited by Reuters foresee at least another year of high gas prices even if the war is resolved and winter proves mild, because Europe must restock reserves depleted to record lows.
What to watch
- 1 December: the close of the window for meeting the EU’s 90% storage target, and an early read on how fast stocks are being drawn.
- 16–17 December: the ECB’s next monetary policy meeting, with a press conference on the second day.
- Storage data from Gas Infrastructure Europe’s AGSI platform, the clearest gauge of whether withdrawals are running ahead of normal.
- Retail tariff resets through 2027, which will decide how much of the wholesale spike reaches indexed pension liabilities.
Sources
- European gas touches €100 for first time since 2022 energy crisis as consumers, industry feel the pain, Reuters (via Global Banking & Finance Review), 28 October 2026
- Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area, Eurostat, 16 October 2026
- ECB holds rates as energy shock threatens inflation and growth, Alliance News (via AJ Bell), 29 October 2026
- Gas storage: Council greenlights 2-year extension of reserves filling rules to safeguard winter supply, Council of the European Union, 18 July 2025
- Schedules for the meetings of the Governing Council and General Council of the ECB and related press conferences, European Central Bank, accessed 1 November 2026