The stall and the stockpile

Payrolls +29,000, July revised below zero — hours before the G-7 reached for the emergency diesel. Three weeks after the Fed’s first hike since 2023, the long end is pricing the next one for them.

Friday delivered the war economy’s two halves within a few hours. At 8:30 in Washington, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US employers added 29,000 jobs in September — and revised July’s print below zero. By mid-morning, the Group of Seven, meeting by video at President Macron’s invitation, had agreed to release 100 million barrels through the IEA, starting immediately, with diesel first. Demand is stalling; supply is being met out of stockpiles. That is the definition of an economy running on its buffers.

The bond market’s verdict was the day’s third fact. Treasuries rallied on the payrolls miss, then turned around and sold: the 30-year closed higher in yield at 5.63%, the 20-year at 5.67% — four basis points above the 30-year for a second session. A weakening labour market no longer buys you a lower long end. Three weeks after the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase since 2023, with the ECB and the Bank of Japan having tightened in the same month, the long end is doing some of the work the policy rate is not. What that repricing does to your discount rates, your duration book and your war-risk premium is today’s Brief.

Today in 90 seconds

The stall. US payrolls rose 29,000 in September against a Reuters poll consensus of about 90,000; unemployment 4.2%, up a tenth from 4.1%. July was revised from +21,000 to −10,000, August from +162,000 to +133,000 — 60,000 lower combined, which is the Bureau’s own figure. Average monthly gain over the prior twelve months: 45,000. Health care is still adding; financial activities has shed 129,000 since a May 2025 peak, most of it in insurance carriers and related activities (−90,000).

The stockpile. The G-7 agreed on 2 October to release 100 million barrels through the IEA over four months, “including a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days” — and reaffirmed no export restrictions among themselves, calling on all producers to refrain from bans. President Trump dropped the threatened US diesel-export ban. AAA’s national pump diesel average was $6.34 on 4 October, off a record $6.53 set on 22 September.

The long end looked through both. Friday’s Treasury par yields: 2-year 4.83%, 10-year 5.28%, 20-year 5.67%, 30-year 5.63% — all higher on the day despite the jobs miss. 2s10s at +45bp. Minutes of the September meeting, where the Fed raised the target range to 3.75–4.00% on a 12–0 vote, are expected Wednesday.

OPEC+ stayed parked. The seven producers running the April and November 2023 voluntary adjustments held November’s required production at September’s level on 4 October — a second monthly pause — while most pump below target because of the war. UKMTO reported a further tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz on 4 October. Iran restated its conditions for reopening the strait.

The machine keeps buying itself. AMD’s $8.2 billion all-stock agreement to acquire Fei-Fei Li’s World Labs (28 September) closed a week in which the Financial Times reported Oracle leasing roughly 100,000 chips to Tencent for about $7 billion, and Anthropic’s listing timetable firmed for a mid-October roadshow.

The week is a policy gauntlet. FOMC minutes expected Wednesday; a 30-year reopening Thursday; the IMF and World Bank open their Bangkok annual meetings on 12 October with a forecast written for a war that was supposed to be over.

The stall

The print. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, Friday 8:30am, release USDL-26-1549: “Both nonfarm payroll employment (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.” The body is harder than the headline. July was revised from +21,000 to −10,000 — a negative month now on the books — and August from +162,000 to +133,000. The Bureau states the combined effect itself: “employment in July and August combined is 60,000 lower than previously reported.” September’s +29,000 follows, in the Bureau’s words, “an average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months.” Across the three revised months — July −10,000, August +133,000, September +29,000 — the run rate is about 50,700 a month.

The composition is thin, and the Bureau is careful about it: health care “continued its upward trend in September (+17,000), but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+33,000)”; construction “changed little (+11,000)”; manufacturing “was little changed (+9,000)”; financial activities “was little changed (−7,000)”. That last sector is down 129,000 since a recent peak in May 2025, “with most of the job loss in insurance carriers and related activities (−90,000)”.

Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.81, and 3.0% over the year — below headline PCE inflation of 3.4% in August, though level with core PCE at 3.0%. The long-term unemployed were 27.1% of all unemployed. And one group moved on its own: the unemployment rate for people who are Black rose to 7.0% from 6.0%, a full percentage point in a month, and the only major worker group the Bureau says changed. Participation ticked up to 61.8%, little changed since January.

The reaction that matters. Equities did the obvious thing: the Dow rose 250.40 points, or 0.5%, to 51,176.96; the S&P 500 rose 56.27 points, or 0.7%, to 7,722.72; the Nasdaq composite rose 319.27 points, or 1.2%, to 27,190.86, while the Nasdaq-100 closed at a record 30,807.93. But the bond market did the non-obvious thing. After an initial rally, Treasuries reversed and closed weaker across the curve: 2-year 4.83% (+5bp), 10-year 5.28% (+4bp), 20-year 5.67% (+3bp), 30-year 5.63% (+2bp). The 20-year now yields four basis points more than the 30-year, as it has intermittently through September — 24 September was the widest of the episode at six. 2s10s sits at +45bp.

The equity tape told a barbell story: Tesla +4.6%, Broadcom +3.3%, Oracle +3.1%, AMD +3.0% to a $633.91 close, Nvidia +1.3% — the AI complex rallying on cheaper-money hopes in the same session the bond market rejected them. For the week, though, the indices were flat to lower: S&P 500 −0.3%, Nasdaq composite +0.5%, Dow −1.3%.

Why you should care. The 60/40 reflex — weak labour data, buy duration — just failed in real time. If your asset-liability model assumes Treasuries rally on growth scares, Friday is the counter-example to put in front of your investment committee: a negative July, a 29,000 September, and the 30-year sold off. The reason is structural. A central bank tightening into a supply shock is not a central bank that can validate your duration.

The tableau behind it. September was the war economy’s first synchronized tightening, and each leg is on its own central bank’s record. The Fed raised the target range to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September on a 12–0 vote; of eighteen participants submitting projections, twelve put one further quarter-point by year-end, four put two, and two put none. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50%, decided 10 September and effective the 16th — its second hike of the cycle. President Lagarde, asked about projections short of target, said the decision “was, by the way, a unanimous decision” and “was a no-brainer.” The Bank of Japan raised to 1.25% on 18 September, a 31-year high, on a 7–2 vote. The Bank of England held at 3.75% on a 6–3 vote, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill preferring a quarter-point increase. The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% at every announcement this year.

Headline inflation, by issuer and reference month: euro-area HICP 3.8% in September on Eurostat’s flash of 2 October, up from 3.2% in August, with energy inflation at 18.8%; US PCE 3.4% in August, core 3.0%; UK CPI 3.1% in August; Japan 1.9% in August; Canada 3.0% in August.

What this means for the future. Three dated signposts. Wednesday: minutes of the 15–16 September FOMC meeting, expected on the Fed’s published three-week rule. Thursday: a $22 billion reopening of the 30-year, announced 1 October and settling 15 October, into a 5.63% market — August’s new-money 30-year went off at $25 billion with a 2.39 bid-to-cover; watch the tail. 27–28 October: the FOMC itself, where a labour market running near 50,000 a month meets a committee that has just raised rates.

The countercase, stated fairly: one report is not a stall. September’s +29,000 came with participation at 61.8% and unemployment at 4.2%, not 5.2%, and August at +133,000 is not recessionary. The bond market may be pricing the wrong risk. But it is the bond market that sets your discount rate, and it has chosen.

The war chest’s scoreboard. Gold closed Friday at $4,162.30 an ounce — about 25% below its intraday record of $5,586.20 on 29 January, and about 22% below that day’s record close — because real yields are doing the hedging now. The Nikkei closed at 68,309.46, down 0.9% on the day but up 2.9% on the week, within 6% of its record close of 72,366.34 on 25 June. The yen carry and the gold unwind are the same trade as the steepening Treasury curve: the market is pricing more inflation-fighting, not less, even as the engine misfires.

The stockpile

The decision. On 2 October the leaders of the Group of Seven — convened by President Macron, whose country holds this year’s presidency — released a joint statement: “taking into account commitments that have already been fulfilled, we will implement our commitments with a coordinated release through the IEA of 100 million barrels (MB) to begin immediately over 4 months, including a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days by G7 members and partners.” They added: “We reaffirm our commitment to refrain from export restrictions on energy and energy products between G7 countries and call on all producers to refrain from imposing bans that could exacerbate market tensions.” Macron’s framing: “This common decision and this unity should bring down prices.”

Note what the statement does not do: it gives no commodity split for the 100 million barrels, naming diesel only for the frontloaded tranche.

Why you should care. This is the second IEA coordinated action of the war — after the 400-million-barrel release of 11 March, which the agency called its largest ever — and it is structurally different. March was crude-heavy and pre-emptive; this one is diesel-front-loaded and reactive, aimed at the distillate market where the damage is concentrated. AAA’s national pump diesel average was $6.34 on 4 October, off the record $6.5276 set on 22 September but up roughly two and a half dollars since February. Diesel is freight, agriculture, construction and military logistics; it is also the US midterm calendar, four weeks from Tuesday. An AP-NORC poll fielded 24–28 September and published 1 October put approval of the president’s handling of the economy at 26%, a new low, with 17% approving on the cost of living. The political economy of the release is not a side note — it is the release.

The answer to Friday’s open question. This Brief’s 2 October edition flagged a consideration-stage item: a possible US ban on diesel exports. It is resolved. Asked on 2 October, President Trump said: “We’re not going to be doing the export ban. We’re going to be doing what we’re supposed to do.” Of the European action he said, per ITV, “what Europe did was a great thing.” Stage discipline, applied: a mooted measure is not a measure, and it now never will be one.

The supply side stayed parked. On 4 October the seven OPEC+ countries that announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023 — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — “decided to maintain September 2026 required production for November 2026”, a second consecutive monthly hold, and “reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation.” Their November required production totals 31,010 thousand barrels a day. The 1.65 million b/d unwind of the April 2023 tranche, begun in April 2026, completed in September; a separate group-wide cut of about 2 million barrels a day, agreed in 2022, runs to 31 December 2026. The seven meet again on 1 November. A full OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is expected on 29 November to set 2027 policy, though OPEC has published no date, and the capacity review that would set 2027 baselines has been delayed. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which met separately the same day and does not set policy, again “expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time.”

Reuters reports that Gulf OPEC+ producers “have been pumping well below output targets in the face of continuing export disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, with exports fluctuating at 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months,” and that the seven “pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July, yet still roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels in February, OPEC data shows.” Those are Reuters’ operating claims on OPEC’s data — one evidentiary chain with OPEC, not a second.

A universal owner does not own the quota. It owns the diesel bill inside every other portfolio company, the refining margin, the inflation assumption in a long liability, and, for several of the largest owners, the fiscal position of the state that funds the fund. A held target is easy to read as calm. The transmission is the gap between the number assigned for November and the barrel that can be refined and delivered.

Because the war did not pause for the weekend. UKMTO Warning 150-26, dated 4 October, records that a tanker’s master reported the vessel “being struck by unknown projectile, causing damage to the engine room,” with the crew safe and no environmental impact. UKMTO names no vessel, gives the time as to be confirmed, and identifies no perpetrator; no party has claimed it. It is the seventh such numbered warning since 29 September. Vessel traffic through the strait remains roughly 75% below pre-conflict levels, with tankers dominating observed movements, and the Joint Maritime Information Centre’s threat assessment is severe. The strait is legally open and physically navigable; it is commercially marginal. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on 4 October that US proposals contradict Washington’s public statements, and that the strait will not reopen until Iran’s conditions — which he numbers at seven, and which Iranian state media render as lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, removing oil sanctions and ending military operations — are met. Those conditions are Tehran’s characterisation of its demands; the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding of 17 June 2026, which they reference, contains fourteen numbered provisions and enumerates no seven conditions. The war began on 28 February, seven months ago.

The Wall Street Journal reported on 1 October that a third US carrier is heading to the Middle East and that the president is considering resuming strikes, having “told aides that he expects” to. That is a single anonymously sourced account of a deliberative matter, carried here as a planning signal and not as a schedule; no second source confirms it.

What this means for the future. Run the stockpile arithmetic, because it is the constraint. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 283.8 million barrels on 25 September — its lowest since November 1982 on the EIA’s own weekly series, which begins in August 1982. The G-7 release buys four months of diesel cover at the cost of the buffer itself, and every barrel out is a barrel that must one day be bought back. Into what market? On 29 September the EIA assessed Europe Brent spot at $113.96 while the December futures contract settled at $102.59 — a physical premium of $11.37 a barrel. That spread is the tightest summary of the crisis available: the futures curve prices the policy response; the cargo market prices the strait. OPEC+’s hold is the tell that the producers expect the stockpiles, not the strait, to run out first.

The countercase: the March release genuinely broke the price spike for six weeks; front-loading diesel into the US harvest and heating season could repeat that; and a release this size flattens the speculative length that amplifies every strike. dpa, citing Commerzbank, reports Gulf exports have recently begun to rise — which, with the IEA’s own statement that “crude oil exports from the Middle East have recovered significantly,” cuts against reading the frozen quota as scarcity. Both are characterisations, not measurements, and they point the same way. If you are underwriting energy-linked revenue, infrastructure tolls or fuel-sensitive credit, the honest position is that the demand side and the stockpile side now race each other, and your exposure to the winner is the position to check.

Stage named on every item

AMD buys a world model. On 28 September AMD announced a definitive agreement to acquire World Labs — the spatial-intelligence company founded by Fei-Fei Li, who led the ImageNet project — in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $8.2 billion, expected to close by the end of 2026 subject to regulatory approvals. On closing, Li will join AMD as executive vice-president and chief scientist, reporting to Lisa Su. For scale: AMD announced Xilinx in October 2020 at $35 billion and completed it in February 2022 at a purchase consideration of $48.8 billion. World Labs’ first product, Marble, launched in November 2025 and generates persistent, downloadable 3-D environments from text, images, video, panoramas or 3-D layouts.

Why you should care: this is vertical integration — a chip company buying the model layer that determines whose silicon the next generation of workloads is compiled for. If Nvidia’s moat is CUDA, AMD’s answer is to own models that must be ported. For allocators, note the stage — signed, not closed, with a 2026 regulatory path — and note what an $8.2 billion all-stock price implies for the private marks of every other world-model and embodied-AI company in your venture book.

Oracle rents the chips China cannot buy. The Financial Times reported on 1 October that Oracle has agreed a roughly $7 billion, five-year lease giving Tencent access to approximately 100,000 advanced AI chips through Oracle data centres in Southeast Asia, with around 30% payable up front — chips Tencent cannot lawfully obtain in China under US export controls. The report rests on two people with knowledge of the matter; neither company has commented. Reported stage, not announced by the principals.

Why you should care: the export-control regime is creating a new asset class — offshore compute escrow — and with it a new jurisdiction question. The capacity sits in Southeast Asia; the counterparty risk is Chinese; the licence risk is American. Any fund holding cloud-infrastructure debt or data-centre equity in the region now owns a sliver of the chip-control question whether it underwrote it or not.

The IPO window, precisely measured. OpenAI’s annualised revenue was reported by Axios on 29 September as approaching $70 billion, up more than 70% since the start of the third quarter. Sam Altman told Fortune on 12 September that a listing was not imminent — “I would say not 2026” — and that “given everything happening with safety, right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public, and we don’t feel pressure on that.” Separately, at DevDay on 29 September, OpenAI launched dots, always-on ChatGPT agents with their own cloud computers.

Anthropic is moving. An IPO prospectus seen by Reuters, reported 29 September, shows 2025 compute-and-infrastructure spending of $7.33 billion — a threefold increase on 2024 — accounting for more than half of $12.65 billion in total operating expenses, against revenue of nearly $4.6 billion. Reuters reports the offering could value the company at more than $2 trillion. The roadshow is targeted for mid-October with a Nasdaq listing, through a syndicate led by Morgan Stanley with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Citi, and a revolving credit facility reported in early September as being finalised at $15 billion. Sources differ on whether the listing lands before or after the November midterms. Kalshi’s market on a formal announcement before the end of 2026 was at 78% on 29 September, resolving on an effective S-1, IPO pricing or a ticker assignment.

Context worth holding: Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 launched on 22 September and Sonnet 5.5 on 28 September, and about ten days before the first of those, Dario Amodei published an essay arguing “we must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models.” And the window is selective: Oura postponed its listing on 29 September and SB Energy has delayed.

Why you should care: a mid-October roadshow lands in the same fortnight as the IMF’s Bangkok meetings and the Fed minutes — a reported $2 trillion-plus valuation pricing into a stalling labour market and a 5.63% long bond. If it prices, every growth book on the planet gets a new mark; if it slips, every private AI mark in your book gets a new question. The countercase: this is real revenue, not 2021-vintage hope, and the compute spend is contracted demand. The case against is that their customers’ customers have not yet shown the returns — and Item 1 is what a demand-side disappointment looks like in macro form.

Manhattan at reset values. Rithm Capital, through its Elecor Properties platform, and a fund managed by DRA Advisors announced a joint venture on 2 October for the ownership of 1301 Avenue of the Americas, a 45-storey, 1.7 million square foot Midtown tower, fully leased. Rithm retains majority ownership and operational control. Terms were not disclosed.

The private-credit file every trustee should read twice

The private-credit file every trustee should read twice. Metrics Credit Partners has restricted redemptions in its real-estate debt fund, making it the local emblem of private credit’s liquidity mismatch. The Australian regulatory file was already thick before it: ASIC’s surveillance report on private-markets valuation and disclosure, published 5 November 2025, put the practice on formal notice, and APRA’s System Risk Outlook of 21 May 2026 set out the prudential concerns. Australia’s compulsory superannuation system is larger than A$4 trillion, with double-digit private-market allocations and quarterly liquidity promises.

Why you should care: Australia is the laboratory, and what its regulators write, others photocopy. If your fund marks private credit monthly, offers annual liquidity, and has never tested both promises in the same quarter, the Australian file is addressed to you in everything but name.

What this Brief is not printing: figures circulating for individual funds’ exposure to Metrics. One widely repeated number is the manager’s own fund size, not any investor’s holding; another has no disclosed source at all. No fund’s exposure is stated here until the fund or the regulator states it.

The tariff question goes back to school. The Supreme Court opens its October term today. February’s decision striking down the IEEPA tariffs settled the statute, not the money: refund mechanics for the duties already collected remain contested, and a second tariff track continues on Section 301 and 307 grounds. Also on today’s calendar, at 10am with an hour allotted: Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc., et al. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County, et al., No. 25-170. When the Court granted certiorari on 23 February it directed the parties to brief and argue an additional question of its own — “whether this Court has statutory and Article III jurisdiction to hear this case.” For a universal owner reading outcome risk in climate litigation, the jurisdictional question is the story.

Why you should care: refund timing is a fiscal variable, and it would land in the same quarter as a heavy long-end auction calendar. It is also a margin variable for every import-sensitive name in your equity book. Stage discipline applies here too: struck down is not refunded.

The Powell file closes. The Justice Department will not reopen its criminal probe of former Fed chair Jerome Powell, Attorney General Todd Blanche said on 2 October. Powell remains a sitting member of the Board of Governors with a term to January 2028. A domestic-political risk to central-bank independence that this Brief has tracked since the summer is, for now, off the board — worth one line, because the absence of an escalation is itself the signal.

Hong Kong writes its rulebook in the open. The 2026 Policy Address adds dated commitments on the digital-asset file, including a quantum-preparedness measure for banks, digital-asset custody supervision in the second half of 2026, and an anti-money-laundering technology framework in 2027. For any institution with a Hong Kong booking centre or an Asia custody mandate, these are the compliance dates that determine when — not whether — post-quantum migration becomes a supervisor’s question rather than an IT one.

What is on the reading list, and why

APRA, System Risk Outlook (21 May 2026). The prudential regulator’s own statement of where it thinks systemic pressure is building, including superannuation’s private-market exposure. Read it as a stress-testing syllabus: valuation lags, redemption queues, and the governance gap between listed and unlisted sleeves of the same balanced option. The implicit question — what is your liquidity promise worth when your marks are quarterly and your members are daily? — is the right one for any fund’s next ALM review.

ASIC’s private-markets surveillance report (5 November 2025). Valuation frequency, fee disclosure and conflicts in unlisted funds. With the APRA paper it forms a two-handed Australian framework, prudential plus conduct, that other DC-heavy systems will adapt. Watch for its language surfacing in IOSCO and FSB workstreams.

The IMF’s Bangkok test (12–18 October). The Fund and the World Bank open their annual meetings at the QSNCC in Bangkok next Monday. The July World Economic Outlook Update projected about 3.0% global growth for 2026. The IMF’s spokesperson, Julie Kozack, said on 10 September that the world was “on track for world growth of around 3 percent but uncertainty… remains high.” That is the baseline Bangkok must defend or revise, against a war that escalated rather than wound down, a strait at a quarter of its normal traffic, and a G-7 releasing stockpiles. The October WEO’s treatment of the energy assumption is the single most important model-input revision of the autumn for any institution whose strategic asset allocation runs off IMF-consistent scenarios.

What is established, and what would move it

An appointment that is strategy

Fei-Fei Li → AMD. The researcher who led ImageNet — the dataset that taught machines to see and lit the fuse on the deep-learning decade — will become executive vice-president and chief scientist of AMD on the closing of its $8.2 billion all-stock acquisition of World Labs, reporting to Lisa Su. Personnel is strategy: a chipmaker has paid eight billion dollars in stock to bring the model layer in-house, and the message — your future runs on my silicon — is the one Jensen Huang spent a decade sending in the other direction.

Next triggers

• Mon 5 Oct: Supreme Court October term opens; Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County, No. 25-170, argued at 10am.
• Wed 7 Oct: Minutes of the 15–16 September FOMC meeting expected, on the Fed’s three-week rule.
• Thu 8 Oct: $22bn 30-year reopening (announced 1 October; settles 15 October). Watch the tail into a 5.63% market.
• 12–18 Oct: IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok (QSNCC); October WEO and its war assumption.
• Tue 13 Oct: France presents the 2027 projet de loi de finances — carried from the 2 October calendar.
• Wed 14 Oct: Fed Beige Book.
• Mid-Oct: Anthropic S-1 and roadshow window; Oura and SB Energy remain postponed.
• 27–28 Oct: FOMC.
• Fri 30 Oct: Apollo Global Management Q3 results — the private-credit earnings bellwether (carried).
• Sun 1 Nov: OPEC+ seven meet on December policy.
• Tue 3 Nov: US midterm elections.
• Wed 4 Nov: Treasury quarterly refunding statement.
• Sun 29 Nov: Full OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting expected — 2027 policy and the delayed capacity review.

Sources

The Universal Asset Owners Daily Brief is written for the institutions and families that own the world’s capital. Every figure is tied to a named source and an as-of date; every transaction is labelled with its stage — reported, announced, signed, or closed; anything our verification could not support has been excluded, not guessed.

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (USDL-26-1549); Bureau of Economic Analysis; US Treasury daily par yield curve and TreasuryDirect; Federal Reserve (statement and projections, 16 September); European Central Bank (key rates and press-conference transcript, 10 September); Bank of Japan; Bank of England; Bank of Canada; Eurostat; ONS; Japan Statistics Bureau; Statistics Canada; G-7 leaders’ statement via the Élysée and GOV.UK; International Energy Agency; OPEC secretariat and JMMC communiqué; EIA; AAA; UKMTO Warning 150-26; AMD investor relations; Norges Bank Investment Management; Rithm Capital via Business Wire; ASIC; APRA; IMF; Supreme Court of the United States; AP, AP-NORC, Reuters, Financial Times, ITV, Axios, Fortune, dpa.

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