When the shock is on the supply side, what hedges a universal owner's book?
Research & Commercial Insight — Macro & the Long-Term Portfolio. UAO Research, June 8, 2026. The question. Every long-horizon portfolio is
Research & Commercial Insight — Macro & the Long-Term Portfolio. UAO Research, June 8, 2026. The question. Every long-horizon portfolio is
+172k payrolls beat consensus 2-to-1, but two sectors did the work — plus a transatlantic rate split, $96 oil, and one chart.
How sovereign wealth funds are funded, where they invest, and how they turn national savings into multi-decade returns.
AirTrunk's $30bn India commitment, hyperscaler capex near $725bn, and the grid bill landing on ratepayers — plus one chart.
AirTrunk's $30bn India commitment, hyperscaler capex near $725bn, and the grid bill landing on ratepayers — plus one chart.
Research & Commercial Insight — AI and the Long-Term Portfolio. UAO Research, June 7, 2026. The question. The AI-infrastructure buildout is
AirTrunk's $30bn India commitment, hyperscaler capex near $725bn, and the grid bill landing on ratepayers — plus one chart.
A new series on the people shaping the world's largest pools of long-term capital — starting with the CEO of the world's largest single fund.
An in-depth biography: the intelligence training, the hedge fund he gave away, the art collection, the 2020 storm he passed with integrity, and how Nicolai Tangen remade the world's largest fund in the open.
People, power and influence across the world’s largest asset owners. The week of 29 May–5 June 2026.
The weekend cinematic from The Probability Desk: can the world wire the future it has promised? Watch the five-minute film, then read the full scenario report.
Can the world dig, refine, and recycle enough copper to wire the AI build-out and the energy transition — or does the red metal become the binding constraint of the next twenty-five years? A weekend cinematic flagship: full scenario report plus a five-minute film.