UAO Daily Video Brief — July 1: The End of the Allocation Bucket
CalPERS retires strategic asset allocation for a Total Portfolio Approach.
Briefings, research, charts and analysis on the institutions, capital flows and systemic risks shaping long-horizon portfolios.
CalPERS retires strategic asset allocation for a Total Portfolio Approach.
The most crowded trade in history is now "long semiconductors" — the same theme the world's sovereigns are concentrating into. What that means for a universal owner.
Four of the largest semi-liquid funds gated in the same quarter - but 829 of 831 Ares loans were performing. A liquidity-design test, not a default cycle.
Japan ends the era of cheap global money; the sovereign secondary wave; the AI build-out as an inflation engine.
The June 23 rout exposed the universal owner's real risk: index concentration you can't diversify away — and bonds that no longer cushion it.
Today's two-minute video brief: the UK reprices a G7 curve on politics, stewardship on trial, Norway's ethics tool switched off.
The Fed moved its own 2026 median dot above today's policy midpoint and put nine officials on record for a hike — the week that reset the discount rate for every long-horizon owner. Three things for allocators: (1) The discount rate stopped falling; (2) The dollar's best day in a year; (3) Warsh put
US markets closed for Juneteenth. Three stories: a 49 GW power shortfall priced at GFC lows, Asia's sovereign rebalancing, and private credit's institutional-retail divergence.
Warsh held rates and dropped all forward guidance — nine members now project a hike, the median year-end rate moved to 3.8%, and the two-year jumped 16bps. Norway's sovereign fund recovered $68bn from its Q1 rout. Three things for long-horizon allocators.
Warsh delivers his first dot plot at 2pm ET — the rate is a near-certain hold, but the tail has flipped from cut to hike. FedWatch prices ~4-in-10 odds of a December hike. And oil enters its longest losing streak of the year.
Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting into 4.2% inflation. Oil round-trips to ~$80 on a US–Iran deal. And CalPERS crosses its private-markets ceiling before switching to a Total Portfolio Approach. Three things for long-horizon allocators.
AI runs on electricity — and the grid, not the chip, is the binding constraint. (1) Data-centre power demand doubles to ~945 TWh by 2030. (2) Allocators reprice AI from chips to power. (3) The grid is the scarce asset. Full brief: https://universalassetowners.com