The Simulation Desk · agent-based scenario simulation · 2026-06-23
We stress-tested one scenario from the desk’s register with an ensemble of interacting simulated actors — institutions, intermediaries, policymakers and traders — and let them argue, trade and react over 22 rounds. What follows is what the simulation surfaced for the desk to investigate. It is calibration-gated: it carries 0 percentage points on every published probability (cap 5pp, Day 18). Probes, not predictions.
Scenario under test: Reserve fragmentation — erosion of the dollar's exorbitant privilege
Desk thesis: At the margin, reserve managers are diversifying away from the dollar — slowly raising the real funding cost of deficit sovereigns.
Desk probability at run time: 31% — see the scenario register for the current number and model card.
What the simulation surfaced — probes for the desk
- The weakening of dollar privilege and the market response
- Rising market volatility
- A shift in hedging strategy
- A shift in investment philosophy
- A changing regulatory environment
From the simulation record
> As the dollar's privilege weakens, long-term capital owners face higher risk and a recalibration of investment strategy.
The weakening of the dollar's privilege has triggered multiple market reactions, and long-term capital owners face unprecedented challenges and opportunities.
What this is — and is not
These are research prompts surfaced by a simulation, not facts and not published probabilities. Anything that survives the desk’s source-gated investigation shows up in the scenario’s model card with named sources; the rest is discarded.
Interrogate this scenario in the Scenario Lab → · Command Center · The Odds Board · How the simulation leg is governed