The Probability Desk
Scenario probabilities and source confidence. This is the standing scenario register: what the desk is tracking, the probability assigned to each scenario, what changed since the last run, and how confident we are.
The Command Center shows what is moving now; this register explains the numbers. Open any scenario in the Scenario Lab to explore its relationship map and interrogate it from an institutional seat. The Probability Outlook sets these estimates against market prices and carries the Desk’s decade-horizon research. Latest model run: 2026-06-09.
The Strait of Hormuz Scenario
Chokepoint concentration as a standing portfolio factor
When you own a slice of the entire global economy, a single contested waterway is not an oil trade — it is a correlated shock across energy, freight, insurance, inflation and rates.
The Transition Bottleneck Scenario
Navigating the Transition Bottleneck: Implications for Asset Owners
The Transition Bottleneck Scenario highlights the critical challenges posed by supply shortages of essential transition minerals and grid interconnection delays, which threaten the electrification and AI sectors.
The Uninsurable World Scenario
The Uninsurable World Scenario
As insurers retreat from climate-exposed regions, the repercussions extend beyond immediate coverage gaps, impacting property values and financing structures.
The Water & Food Stress Scenario
The Water & Food Stress Scenario
The interplay between water and food-system stress poses significant risks to sovereign stability, particularly for import-dependent nations.
The 60/40 Breaks Scenario
The classic stock-bond diversification fails as correlation turns positive.
The breakdown of the traditional 60/40 portfolio highlights a critical shift in asset correlation dynamics, posing significant challenges for universal asset owners.
The Pension Inversion Scenario
The Pension Inversion Scenario
The Pension Inversion Scenario highlights the potential for major retirement systems to shift from net buyers to net sellers, significantly impacting global markets.
The Fiscal Dominance Scenario
The Fiscal Dominance Scenario
The sustainability of sovereign debt is under scrutiny as high real rates and rising debt-to-GDP ratios threaten fiscal stability.
The Japanification Scenario
The Japanification Scenario
The Japanification scenario highlights the risk of long-term demographic deflation leading to suppressed real interest rates and lower expected returns across asset classes.
The Reserve Fragmentation Scenario
The Reserve Fragmentation Scenario
The erosion of the dollar's exorbitant privilege poses significant implications for universal owners, as it disrupts the stability of reserve currencies and alters strategic asset allocation.
The AI Capex Air-Pocket Scenario
The AI Capex Air-Pocket Scenario
This scenario highlights the potential ramifications of a significant reduction in capital expenditures within the AI data-center sector, which could reverberate through power markets and private credit.
Use the Probability Desk with your team
Institutional members receive full source ledgers, model cards, scenario histories, watchlists, exports, and board-ready briefings.
Request institutional access Open the Command CenterProbabilities are estimates from a governed model run and update as signals change; they are not forecasts of certainty. Editorial scenario analysis only — not investment, actuarial, legal, or financial advice.