The Simulation Desk · agent-based scenario simulation · 2026-06-15
We stress-tested one scenario from the desk’s register with an ensemble of interacting simulated actors — institutions, intermediaries, policymakers and traders — and let them argue, trade and react over 45 rounds. What follows is what the simulation surfaced for the desk to investigate. It is calibration-gated: it carries 0 percentage points on every published probability (cap 5pp, Day 15). Probes, not predictions.
Scenario under test: Reserve fragmentation — erosion of the dollar's exorbitant privilege
Desk thesis: At the margin, reserve managers are diversifying away from the dollar — slowly raising the real funding cost of deficit sovereigns.
Desk probability at run time: 31% — see the scenario register for the current number and model card.
What the simulation surfaced — probes for the desk
- Erosion of dollar privilege and shifts in long-horizon capital allocation
- Major reserve holders trimming dollar and US Treasury exposure at the margin
- Rising long-bond term premium resetting strategic asset-allocation anchors
- Higher real funding costs concentrating on deficit countries
- COFER dollar share breaking multi-decade lows as an accelerant
From the simulation record
The weakening of dollar privilege is reshaping how long-horizon capital is allocated. As major reserve holders are seen reallocating away from the dollar in COFER data, sovereign wealth funds and other long-term owners are re-examining their asset allocation and trimming reliance on the dollar and US Treasuries at the margin.
A rising long-bond term premium lifts real funding costs and resets the return assumptions that anchor strategic asset allocation. Public pensions, insurers and endowments are all re-evaluating portfolios, with higher real funding costs falling hardest on deficit countries and pushing some capital toward non-dollar assets.
Over the next five years the simulation flags several accelerants to watch: a COFER dollar share breaking multi-decade lows, continued central-bank gold buying, and the spread of bilateral non-dollar trade settlement — each of which could speed the erosion and force more flexible allocation responses across owner types.
What this is — and is not
These are research prompts surfaced by a simulation, not facts and not published probabilities. Anything that survives the desk’s source-gated investigation shows up in the scenario’s model card with named sources; the rest is discarded.
Interrogate this scenario in the Scenario Lab → · Command Center · The Odds Board · How the simulation leg is governed