The Simulation Desk · agent-based scenario simulation · 2026-06-14
We stress-tested one scenario from the desk’s register with an ensemble of interacting simulated actors — institutions, intermediaries, policymakers and traders — and let them argue, trade and react over 58 rounds. What follows is what the simulation surfaced for the desk to investigate. It is calibration-gated: it carries 0 percentage points on every published probability (cap 5pp, Day 15). Probes, not predictions.
Scenario under test: Insurance retreat to collateral repricing — uninsurability bleeds into property value
Desk thesis: Where insurers withdraw, financing and collateral values follow — uninsurability is a slow structural hit to real-asset-heavy books.
Desk probability at run time: 39% — see the scenario register for the current number and model card.
What the simulation surfaced — probes for the desk
- Property becomes harder to finance as insurance withdraws — does the desk see financing-cost widening in climate-exposed real assets yet?
- Collateral and mortgage values re-rate where cover disappears — which lenders and books carry the largest uninsured-collateral exposure?
- Real-estate-heavy long books take a slow structural hit — is the repricing gradual enough to be missed by quarterly marks?
- A state insurer-of-last-resort is overwhelmed — what is the fiscal backstop capacity before public cover itself reprices?
- Allocators reframe this as an opportunity to rotate toward assets less exposed to insurance risk — is that rotation already showing in flows?
From the simulation record
In the simulation, insurers withdrawing from climate-exposed zones made property harder to finance, and collateral and mortgage values began to re-rate where cover disappeared. Real-estate-heavy long books took a slow structural hit rather than a single shock, and a state insurer-of-last-resort was eventually overwhelmed by the gap.
The simulated allocators responded by moving risk management to the forefront of strategy and treating the dislocation as an opportunity to rotate toward sustainable projects less exposed to insurance risk. These are signals the desk should investigate against named sources — not published probabilities.
What this is — and is not
These are research prompts surfaced by a simulation, not facts and not published probabilities. Anything that survives the desk’s source-gated investigation shows up in the scenario’s model card with named sources; the rest is discarded.
Interrogate this scenario in the Scenario Lab → · Command Center · The Odds Board · How the simulation leg is governed