The Simulation Desk · agent-based scenario simulation · 2026-06-01
We stress-tested one scenario from the desk’s register with an ensemble of interacting simulated actors — institutions, intermediaries, policymakers and traders — and let them argue, trade and react over multiple rounds. What follows is what the simulation surfaced for the desk to investigate. It is calibration-gated: it carries 0 percentage points on every published probability (cap 5pp, Day 10). Probes, not predictions.
Scenario under test: Chokepoint concentration as a standing factor (Hormuz + Taiwan + Malacca + Panama)
Desk thesis: Too much of the world's energy and container flow now hinges on a handful of contested straits at once — a standing, not episodic, exposure.
Desk probability at run time: 59% — see the scenario register for the current number and model card.
What the simulation surfaced — probes for the desk
- Insurance/freight cost-push as a distinct inflation channel
- Friend-shoring eroding the globalization dividend in CMAs
- Reflexive actors who trade the volatility and amplify it
What this is — and is not
These are research prompts surfaced by a simulation, not facts and not published probabilities. Anything that survives the desk’s source-gated investigation shows up in the scenario’s model card with named sources; the rest is discarded.
Interrogate this scenario in the Scenario Lab → · Command Center · The Odds Board · How the simulation leg is governed