Scenario Lab · 8 September 2026
The exclusion list moves to the data vendor
Base case. Absolute-output coal tests remain a one-firm design choice. No major ESG data vendor adds absolute thermal-coal production and installed capacity as standard fields with stated coverage of unlisted subsidiaries and joint ventures; each owner’s exclusion list stays only as reproducible as its own hand-built file.
It escalates if — each observable, each dated
- A major ESG data vendor announces absolute production and capacity fields as standard, with a coverage statement for unlisted subsidiaries and joint ventures.
- A second European insurer, or a large Dutch or Nordic pension, publishes a threshold denominated in tons or gigawatts within two quarters.
- The court in SEC v. ISS orders client-identified production — a second file, in a second market, becoming producible on demand.
It de-escalates if
The next three owner policies published lean on revenue share; the court accepts anonymised production; no vendor adds the fields.
Falsifier: an owner publishes an exclusion list reproducible from source data. Update rule: re-scored on vendor product announcements and owner policy publications, not on market moves. No probability is published for this scenario.