The Probability Desk
The Duration Reckoning — Cinematic
The 6-minute Probability Desk cinematic on whether the term premium has returned for good — companion to the full scenario report.
Universal Asset Owners
Briefings, research, charts and analysis on the institutions, capital flows and systemic risks shaping long-horizon portfolios.
Watch — The Slow Unpegging: The Probability Desk Cinematic
A five-minute cinematic scenario film on de-dollarization, the gold pivot, and the next reserve order. Read the full flagship report alongside it.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-05-29: The Reopening Trade
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
pd-cinematic
Patriotic Capital — The Probability Desk Cinematic
A six-minute cinematic companion to the Probability Desk's flagship scenario report on the Hormuz disruption — base 55% / upside 30% / tail 15% — and what it reprices for long-duration capital.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — Scenario Video — May 27, 2026
A three-minute probability-weighted scenario video on a contested Strait of Hormuz — base case, upside and tail for long-horizon capital.