The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — Scenario Video — 2026-07-02
Transcript This is The Probability Desk from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
Universal Asset Owners
Briefings, research, charts and analysis on the institutions, capital flows and systemic risks shaping long-horizon portfolios.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — Scenario Video — 2026-06-19
Transcript This is The Probability Desk. Friday, June 19th, 2026. The Hormuz deal is being tested for the first time. Lebanon broke
The Probability Desk
Watch: The Power Wall
The Power Wall — the Probability Desk weekend cinematic. Watch, then read the full scenario report.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-06-13: The Concentration Trap
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: what happens when the index you own is, increasingly, just ten
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 11, 2026: The Hormuz Transit-Fee Gambit
Iran and Oman announce Hormuz transit fees — the first-ever — while US forces strike Iranian radar sites. The Desk assigns 45% to contested partial restoration, 25% to rapid normalization, and 30% to re-escalation. The distribution is bimodal: the median is the wrong number to position for.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 9, 2026: The 5% Anchor
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: whether the risk-free rate — the number underneath nearly every long-
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 8, 2026: A Trickle Into a Tight Market
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: where the price of oil settles by year-end — and what
The Probability Desk
The Copper Reckoning — Cinematic
The weekend cinematic from The Probability Desk: can the world wire the future it has promised? Watch the five-minute film, then read the full scenario report.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 5, 2026: The Hot-Jobs Trap
Video pending upload — the transcript is below; the player appears once the video is hosted. Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 4, 2026: The Reopening Question
Will the Strait of Hormuz return to 90% of normal flow by September? The Desk assigns a 55% base case to a fragile half-life, 25% tail to re-closure, and 20% upside to a clean reopening — against a market pricing calm at $97 Brent.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 3, 2026: The $13 Trillion Door and the Cracking Asset Class
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — what's most likely to happen next, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-06-02: Funding the Buildout
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks