The Probability Desk now runs a multi-agent simulation over its chokepoint scenario. It moves zero of the published probability — its job is to surface the transmission channels analysts under-weight. Here is what the first run found.
Where the desk's governed beliefs stand at day's end: what moved, what did not, the consensus blind spot, and what to watch next.
Where the desk's governed beliefs stand tonight: the Risk Radar load, what moved, the consensus blind spot, and the question for tomorrow.
Wall Street closed May at records, the curve rallied, and the ECB called the calm borrowed — plus a wall-to-wall data week, and one chart.
Wall Street closed May at records, the curve rallied, and the ECB called the calm borrowed — plus a wall-to-wall data week, and one chart.
Wall Street closed May at records, the curve rallied, and the ECB called the calm borrowed — plus a wall-to-wall data week, and one chart.
A hedge fund rents risk and can exit; a universal owner owns the whole economy and cannot. For each risk on the live Radar, the hedge-fund trade vs the multi-decade question only a long-horizon owner has to answer.
Radar load 7.7/100 — 10 structural risks, 7 rising. 2026-06-19: AI capex eased 2pp (17→15%); Hormuz 55% not-normal held; consensus gap narrowed to ~15pp.
The 6-minute Probability Desk cinematic on whether the term premium has returned for good — companion to the full scenario report.
Has the term premium returned for good? A paid-grade scenario report for long-horizon capital, with a 65% probability call on the US 30-year yield and a 6-minute cinematic.
Every AI-governance proposal lost, the biggest fund couldn't move it, and one chart.
Every AI-governance proposal lost, the biggest fund couldn't move it, and one chart.