Coverage, charts, video and research on Video Briefing for universal owners.
Iran and Oman announce Hormuz transit fees — the first-ever — while US forces strike Iranian radar sites. The Desk assigns 45% to contested partial restoration, 25% to rapid normalization, and 30% to re-escalation. The distribution is bimodal: the median is the wrong number to position for.
SpaceX's $1.8 trillion IPO target puts institutional investors in an impossible position: object to the governance, but buy it anyway. Plus: the Danish fund that said no, and private credit's $20 billion pressure valve. Full brief at universalassetowners.com.
CalPERS retires strategic asset allocation on July 1 — the first US pension to adopt the total portfolio approach. We cover the switch, the staff-pay vote that decides whether it works, the private-credit split it's meant to settle, and the contested outperformance number behind it all. (1) CalPERS
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: whether the risk-free rate — the number underneath nearly every long-
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: where the price of oil settles by year-end — and what
May US payrolls beat forecasts two-to-one, but two sectors did 73% of the work and long-term unemployment hit a cycle high — into a split central-bank week and oil back above $96. Three things for long-horizon allocators. (1) US jobs: strong on top, frozen underneath. (2) The Atlantic splits: ECB to
A Blackstone- and pension-backed operator pledged $30bn to build 5GW of AI data centres in India; Gulf sovereign funds kept spending through the war; and the IEA's numbers say power, not capital, is the real ceiling on the compute boom. Three things for long-horizon allocators. Full brief: https://w
The FSB's June plenary reframes systemic risk around correlated, simultaneous shocks — and names two fresh ones. Plus record private-credit defaults and Norway's paused stewardship engine. Three things for long-horizon allocators. Full brief: https://www.universalassetowners.com
Video pending upload — the transcript is below; the player appears once the video is hosted. Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from
Gulf sovereign funds kept deploying through the Iran war, mostly into developed markets — even as official reserve managers eased off the dollar. Today's Capital Flow Watch: where Gulf capital went, the split inside the Gulf, and what a fragmenting "safe haven" means for allocators. (1) The Gulf did
Will the Strait of Hormuz return to 90% of normal flow by September? The Desk assigns a 55% base case to a fragile half-life, 25% tail to re-closure, and 20% upside to a clean reopening — against a market pricing calm at $97 Brent.
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — what's most likely to happen next, for capital that thinks
Research, charts, video and podcast analysis for the institutions investing at the scale of the world.
Five minutes, five days a week. Complimentary — subscriptions are reviewed by our editorial desk, and you'll receive a notice once approved.
You’re on the list. Tomorrow’s brief will arrive in your inbox.
Please enter a valid email.