Coverage, charts, video and research on Video Briefing for universal owners.
SpaceX's $1.8 trillion IPO target puts institutional investors in an impossible position: object to the governance, but buy it anyway. Plus: the Danish fund that said no, and private credit's $20 billion pressure valve. Full brief at universalassetowners.com.
CalPERS retires strategic asset allocation on July 1 — the first US pension to adopt the total portfolio approach. We cover the switch, the staff-pay vote that decides whether it works, the private-credit split it's meant to settle, and the contested outperformance number behind it all. (1) CalPERS
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: whether the risk-free rate — the number underneath nearly every long-
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners. Today: where the price of oil settles by year-end — and what
May US payrolls beat forecasts two-to-one, but two sectors did 73% of the work and long-term unemployment hit a cycle high — into a split central-bank week and oil back above $96. Three things for long-horizon allocators. (1) US jobs: strong on top, frozen underneath. (2) The Atlantic splits: ECB to
A Blackstone- and pension-backed operator pledged $30bn to build 5GW of AI data centres in India; Gulf sovereign funds kept spending through the war; and the IEA's numbers say power, not capital, is the real ceiling on the compute boom. Three things for long-horizon allocators. Full brief: https://w
The FSB's June plenary reframes systemic risk around correlated, simultaneous shocks — and names two fresh ones. Plus record private-credit defaults and Norway's paused stewardship engine. Three things for long-horizon allocators. Full brief: https://www.universalassetowners.com
Video pending upload — the transcript is below; the player appears once the video is hosted. Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from
Gulf sovereign funds kept deploying through the Iran war, mostly into developed markets — even as official reserve managers eased off the dollar. Today's Capital Flow Watch: where Gulf capital went, the split inside the Gulf, and what a fragmenting "safe haven" means for allocators. (1) The Gulf did
Will the Strait of Hormuz return to 90% of normal flow by September? The Desk assigns a 55% base case to a fragile half-life, 25% tail to re-closure, and 20% upside to a clean reopening — against a market pricing calm at $97 Brent.
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — what's most likely to happen next, for capital that thinks
On July 1, the largest U.S. public funds move in opposite directions on private markets. Alaska Permanent trims as its CIO calls the illiquidity premium "gone"; Washington, Connecticut and Virginia build private-credit targets; the FSB warns on a market it can half-see. Three things for long-horizon
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