The Probability Desk
The Copper Reckoning — Cinematic
The weekend cinematic from The Probability Desk: can the world wire the future it has promised? Watch the five-minute film, then read the full scenario report.
Topic
pd-cinematic
Coverage, charts, video and research on pd-cinematic for universal owners.
Latest in pd-cinematic
The Probability Desk
The Copper Reckoning
Can the world dig, refine, and recycle enough copper to wire the AI build-out and the energy transition — or does the red metal become the binding constraint of the next twenty-five years? A weekend cinematic flagship: full scenario report plus a five-minute film.
The Probability Desk
The Duration Reckoning — Cinematic
The 6-minute Probability Desk cinematic on whether the term premium has returned for good — companion to the full scenario report.
The Probability Desk
The Duration Reckoning
Has the term premium returned for good? A paid-grade scenario report for long-horizon capital, with a 65% probability call on the US 30-year yield and a 6-minute cinematic.
Watch — The Slow Unpegging: The Probability Desk Cinematic
A five-minute cinematic scenario film on de-dollarization, the gold pivot, and the next reserve order. Read the full flagship report alongside it.
The Probability Desk
The Slow Unpegging: De-Dollarization, Gold, and the Architecture of the Next Reserve Order
The dollar's share of world reserves just fell below 57% for the first time since the 1990s. We model where the monetary order goes next — and what a universal owner should do about it. A cinematic + paid-grade scenario report.
pd-cinematic
Patriotic Capital — The Probability Desk Cinematic
A six-minute cinematic companion to the Probability Desk's flagship scenario report on the Hormuz disruption — base 55% / upside 30% / tail 15% — and what it reprices for long-duration capital.
pd-cinematic
The Closed Strait: How Long Should Capital Plan for a Disrupted Hormuz?
A Probability Desk flagship: a real 50,000-path Monte Carlo on the 2026 Strait of Hormuz shock and the UAE's exit from OPEC — and what a structurally higher energy-security premium means for universal owners.
The Daily Brief
The morning briefing for the people who allocate long-horizon capital.
Research, charts, video and podcast analysis for the institutions investing at the scale of the world.
Five minutes, five days a week. Free. Built for institutional capital.
You’re on the list. Tomorrow’s brief will arrive in your inbox.
Please enter a valid email.