Probability Outlook Composite

The Probability Desk · Forecast Consensus

What the official models and markets expect

An evidence-weighted read on the questions a universal owner must price — built from central-bank models, official nowcasts and market-based measures. Not betting markets: every line is an authoritative source, dated and graded.

Source · official models & market-based measures · as of —Updated daily

Get the free daily brief → The Universal Owner — a daily read for long-horizon allocators.

Evidence grade: A direct official B authoritative structured data C modelled, multiple sources D estimated

Methodology & data sources

What this is. A forecast consensus, not investment advice and not a betting board. It draws only on official models and market-based measures: the Chauvet–Piger recession model, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast, Treasury breakeven inflation, the yield curve, and the OFR Financial Stress Index. Expert-survey inputs (Survey of Professional Forecasters, FOMC SEP) are being added as a consensus layer.

Why not prediction markets. An earlier version blended wagering-market prices. We removed them: for an institutional audience, a calibrated forecast must rest on authoritative models and disclosed methodology, with each input graded for evidence quality — not on betting liquidity.

Honesty. Each figure shows its own source and observation date; several official series carry a reporting lag (e.g. the recession model is monthly, GDPNow's FRED series settles at quarter-end). Values are the latest available; nothing here is modelled beyond what its source publishes.