Policy-Risk Radar

The Policy-Risk Radar

Where Washington's attention is concentrating

Lobbying is a leading indicator: capital hires representation where it expects policy to move. This radar reads US Senate lobbying-disclosure filings to rank the sectors drawing the most policy attention in 2026 — then maps each to where a universal owner actually holds the exposure.

Source · Updated weekly

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Movers — week over week

Policy heat by sector — 2026 lobbying filings

US Senate LDA, count of 2026 filings whose issue text matches each theme. Keyword-match intensity (a filing can touch several themes), not a mutually-exclusive split.

What it means for the book

Each hot theme mapped to a universal owner's typical portfolio exposure.

Methodology & data sources

What this is. A directional read on policy risk, built from US Senate Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA) filings. We query the LDA API for 2026 filings whose lobbying-activity issue text matches each theme (defense, healthcare, energy, AI, trade, tariffs, semiconductors, taxation, Medicare/Medicaid). The filing count is a measure of how much organised attention each theme is drawing.

Honest caveats. These are keyword-match counts: a single filing covering several issues will appear under each, so the bars measure attention intensity, not a clean category breakdown, and they should not be summed. Total 2026 filings across all issues: . Lobbying volume signals attention and expected policy motion, not the direction or outcome of that policy.

Portfolio mapping. The right-hand panel maps each hot theme to where a global universal owner typically carries the exposure — defense primes, the healthcare/pharma index weight, the mega-cap AI cluster (~a third of major indices), energy & utilities infrastructure, and trade-exposed multinationals. This is editorial mapping, not a holdings calculation.

Make it live. Refresh weekly. A documented fast-follow overlays USAspending federal-award totals by agency/sector (api.usaspending.gov spending_by_category) to pair lobbying attention with actual dollars flowing.