The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — June 3, 2026: The $13 Trillion Door and the Cracking Asset Class
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — what's most likely to happen next, for capital that thinks
Contributor
UAO Editorial
The Probability Desk
The $13 Trillion Door Opens as Private Credit Cracks: Whose Money Arrives Last?
The Probability Desk — Wednesday, June 3, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph. On June 1, 2026, the public comment period closed on
Probability Desk
The Universal Owner — Daily Oracle Brief, June 3, 2026
The desk's daily state-of-the-world: 10 structural risks, what moved, and what it means for long-duration capital.
Chart of the Day
Chart of the day — 2026-06-03
Alaska trims, Washington builds, the FSB warns — and one chart.
Podcast
The Universal Owner — Wednesday, June 3, 2026
Alaska trims, Washington builds, the FSB warns — and one chart.
Video Briefing
UAO Daily Video Brief — June 3: Pensions split on private markets
On July 1, the largest U.S. public funds move in opposite directions on private markets. Alaska Permanent trims as its CIO calls the illiquidity premium "gone"; Washington, Connecticut and Virginia build private-credit targets; the FSB warns on a market it can half-see. Three things for long-horizon
UAO Research
Is the illiquidity premium still being paid? Pensions split at the July 1 turn.
UAO Research · June 3, 2026 · Pensions & Retirement · Feeds: Pension Strategy Watch For thirty years the textbook answer was settled: a pension
Daily Brief
Pensions split on private markets at July 1 | Jun 3
Alaska trims, Washington builds, the FSB warns — and one chart.
The Probability Desk
The Probability Desk — 2026-06-02: Funding the Buildout
Transcript This is The Probability Desk, from Universal Asset Owners — base cases, tail risks, and second-order effects, for capital that thinks
The Probability Desk
When the Whole Market Has to Fund the Buildout: Alphabet's $80bn Raise and the AI Capex Cycle
The Probability Desk — Tuesday, June 2, 2026 Desk view in one paragraph. On June 1, 2026, Alphabet did something it had never
Chart of the Day
Chart of the day — 2026-06-02
A faster pace than the prior five years, the Strait shut — and one chart.