AI & Concentration Self-Test

The Universal Owner Risk Radar · AI Concentration

Cap-weighted index investing has quietly turned passive allocators into concentrated bets on a handful of mega-caps and the AI-capex cycle. Set your equity profile to see how much of your book really rides on that cluster, what an AI-capex unwind could cost, and whether your governance has caught up.

Source · — · as of —

Your equity profile

Public equity (% of portfolio) 45%

Passive / index share of equity 65%

Cap-weighted index sleeves inherit the full top-10 concentration.

Home-region equity tilt 55%

A US / developed-market tilt raises mega-cap & AI-capex exposure; a diversified or EM tilt lowers it.

Seed assumption

Top-10 / Mag-7 names sit at roughly ~33% of major cap-weighted indices (modelled). The unwind scenario applies −35% to the AI cluster.

Implied mega-cap / AI-capex exposure

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of your total portfolio is effectively a position in the
top-10 mega-cap & AI-capex cluster.

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Concentration gauge

AI-capex unwind (−35% cluster): 1-yr drawdown

AI-policy readiness checklist

0 / 6 in place

Mercer 2025: 69% of large asset owners have no formal AI policy — even as AI-driven concentration becomes the single largest active bet in many "passive" books.

Methodology & data sources

What this is. A directional self-assessment, not investment advice. It translates an equity profile into an estimate of how much of the total portfolio is effectively a concentrated position in the largest mega-caps and the AI-capex cycle.

The concentration math. Implied exposure ≈ public-equity % × passive share × ~33% top-10 index weight, scaled by a home-region tilt factor (a US / developed tilt lifts the AI-capex share, a diversified or EM tilt lowers it). The ~33% figure is the modelled weight of the top-10 / Magnificent-Seven cluster in major cap-weighted global and US equity indices; replace it with a confirmed current index-fact-sheet figure on each refresh. The AI-capex sub-share of that cluster is a modelled assumption.

Drawdown sensitivity. The "AI-capex unwind" applies a −35% shock to the AI cluster plus a −12% spillover to the rest of equity, expressed as a one-year drawdown in portfolio-percentage points. Illustrative, not a forecast.

AI-policy stat. "69% of large asset owners have no formal AI policy" is drawn from the Mercer 2025 Large Asset Owner survey.

Cadence. The index-weight seed is refreshed quarterly from public index fact sheets via pipelines/refresh_ai-concentration-self-test.py.