This week’s Probability Desk cinematic: The Slow Unpegging — a five-minute scenario film on the quiet erosion of dollar reserve dominance, the central-bank pivot into gold, and what a slowly diversifying monetary order means for the world’s largest long-horizon owners.
Read the full scenario report → The complete written flagship — the source ledger, the Bayesian evidence update, the 50,000-path simulation, the four-scenario tree, and the universal-owner portfolio map — lives here: The Slow Unpegging: De-Dollarization, Gold, and the Architecture of the Next Reserve Order.
Editorial scenario analysis only — not investment, actuarial, or geopolitical advice.