03 · register scope
Why these risks — and not others
These are not “all the risks in the world,” nor the ten most likely events. They are a deliberately small, living register of the structural forces a universal owner cannot diversify away — ranked by tail-priority, not probability. An owner of the whole market already holds every sector and stock, so idiosyncratic risks net out; what remains, and what this desk tracks, is systemic, slow-building and consensus-underpriced. The register is sized to what a board can hold in view at once (~10–15) and expands as honest signals and base rates are built for new candidates.
The bar · systemic
Hits the whole market
not one sector — an owner of everything nets out the idiosyncratic
Long-horizon
Structural, over years
stewarded by permanent capital, not traded
Consensus-underpriced
Where the desk has an edge
weak signals ahead of consensus
Material to the mandate
Could impair permanent capital
return assumptions, hedges, the dollar anchor
Monitorable
Honest signals exist
a sourced base rate & public feed — or it stays off the board
Deliberately excluded
• Short-term, tradeable or market-timing risks (hedge-fund territory)
• Idiosyncratic company / sector risks (already diversified away)
• Risks already fully consensus-priced (no edge)
• Pure tails with no monitorable signal (we do not fabricate)
Candidate pipeline under consideration
Added as feeds & base rates mature: cyber & systemic-tech failure · pandemic / biorisk · AI governance & compute concentration · biodiversity & natural-capital loss · social cohesion & inequality · critical-supply concentration · space / satellite infrastructure · tax & regulatory regime shifts